[1]李环禹,陈朝晖,范文亮,等.区域降雨型滑坡风险分析统计模型研究[J].自然灾害学报,2018,(04):103-111.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2018.0414]
 LI Huanyu,CHEN Zhaohui,FAN Wenliang,et al.The statistical risk analysis model of rainfall-induced landslide in large areas[J].,2018,(04):103-111.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2018.0414]
点击复制

区域降雨型滑坡风险分析统计模型研究
分享到:

《自然灾害学报》[ISSN:/CN:23-1324/X]

卷:
期数:
2018年04期
页码:
103-111
栏目:
出版日期:
2018-09-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
The statistical risk analysis model of rainfall-induced landslide in large areas
作者:
李环禹1 陈朝晖12 范文亮12 文海家12
1. 重庆大学 土木工程学院, 重庆 400045;
2. 山地城镇建设与新技术教育部重点实验室(重庆大学), 重庆 400045
Author(s):
LI Huanyu1 CHEN Zhaohui12 FAN Wenliang12 WEN Haijia12
1. School of Civil Engineering, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400045, China;
2. Key Lab. of New Technol. for Construction of Cities in Mountain Area(Chongqing University), Ministry of Education, Chongqing 400045, China
关键词:
降雨型滑坡重庆地区边坡危险性区划累积降雨量滑坡气象预报预警模型风险分析
Keywords:
rainfall-induced landslideChongqingslope risk zoningaccumulated rainfallmeteorological forecast model for landsliderisk analysis
分类号:
X43;P642.22;P315.93
DOI:
10.13577/j.jnd.2018.0414
摘要:
较大空间区域内的降雨型滑坡风险分析受降雨情况以及地质地貌条件复杂多样的影响,难以完全量化分析。本文以地层岩性、岩土体结构、地质构造、坡度及河流冲刷等为主要因素建立了边坡危险性区划模型,在重庆地区滑坡与降雨关系的统计分析基础上,建立了重庆地区滑坡前期累计有效降雨量模型与降雨型滑坡预报累积降雨量指标体系,结合对重庆地区降雨概率分布的分析,建立了降雨型滑坡风险分析模型,研究了不同降雨条件、不同边坡危性等级下的年度滑坡风险,验证了所建预报预警模型的合理性和适用性,为城市区域规划和基础设施风险评估与管理提供了定量依据,为一定空间和时间范围内降雨滑坡风险的量化评估提供了有效途径。
Abstract:
The risk analysis of rainfall-induced landslides in large areas is affected by rainfall and geological conditions and is difficulty to analyze numerically. In this paper, the slope risk division model is present by considering the factors such as stratum lithology, rock and soil structure, geological formation, slope inclination and river erosion phenomena. Based on the statistics of the relationship between rainfall and landslide based on the rainfall induced landslide cases in Chongqing, the model of effective cumulative rainfall before landslide is proposed. By the combination of the fore-mentioned models and the probability analysis of rainfall, the meteorological forecast model as well as the risk analysis model for rainfall-induced landslide are established. The rationality of the model is verified by case study while the annul landslide risk in Chongqing under different rainfall conditions and different slope danger grades is studied. It is shown that for the same risk zoning area, the greater the rainfall intensity, the greater the risk of landslide with the high forecast level.

参考文献/References:

[1] 李焯芬, 汪敏. 港渝两地滑坡灾害的对比研究[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2000, 19(4):493-497. LI Chaofen, WANG Min. Comparison of landslide hazards between hongkong and Chongqing[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering, 2000, 19(4):493-497. (in Chinese)
[2] 张明, 胡瑞林, 谭儒蛟, 等. 降雨型滑坡研究的发展现状与展望[J]. 工程勘察, 2009, 37(3):11-17. ZHANG Ming, HU Ruilin, TAN Rujiao, et al. State-of-the-art study on landslides due to rainfall and the prospect[J]. Geotechnical Investigation & Surveying, 2009, 37(3):11-17. (in Chinese)
[3] 山田刚二. 滑坡和斜坡崩坍及其防治[M]. 科学出版社, 1980. YAMADA Gôji. Landslide Prevention and Control[M]. Science Press, 1980. (in Chinese)
[4] 魏纲, 周琰. 邻近盾构隧道的建筑物安全风险模糊层次分析[J]. 地下空间与工程学报, 2014, 10(4):956-961. WEI Gang, ZHOU Yan. Fuzzy assessment method combining AHP for safety risk of buildings caused by adjacent shield tunnel construction[J]. Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering, 2014, 10(4):956-961. (in Chinese)
[5] Montgomery D R, Dietrich W E. A physically based model for the topographic control on shallow landsliding[J]. Water Resources Research, 1994, 30(4):1153-1171.
[6] 孟海燕. 辽宁省滑坡危险性区划及其稳定性分析[D]. 辽宁:大连理工大学, 2010:38-55. MENG Haiyan. Study on Hazard Zonation and Stability of Landslides in Liaoning[D]. Liaoning:Dalian University of Technology, 2010:38-55. (in Chinese)
[7] Kiefer J. Sequential minimax search for a maximum[J]. Proceedings of the American Mathematical Society, 1953, 4(3):502-506.
[8] 秦文涛. 降雨特性对非饱和土边坡稳定可靠性的影响研究[D]. 重庆:重庆大学, 2015:26-38. QIN Wentao. Analysis on the Influence of Rainfall Characteristics on the Stability Reliability of Unsaturated Slope[D]. Chongqing:Chongqing University, 2015:26-38. (in Chinese)
[9] 张珍, 李世海, 马力. 重庆地区滑坡与降雨关系的概率分析[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2005, 24(17):3185-3191. ZHANG Zhen, LI Shihai, MA Li. Probability analysis of relationship between landslide and rainfall in Chongqing area[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering, 2005, 24(17):3185-3191. (in Chinese)
[10] 范文亮, 陈朝晖, 余德祥, 等. 基于概率密度演化理论的重庆市降雨概率结构研究[J]. 工程力学, 2012, 29(7):154-162. FAN Wenliang, CHEN Zhaohui, YU Dexiang, et al. Probabilistic analysis of rainfall in Chongqing based on probability density evolution theory[J]. Engineering Mechanics, 2012, 29(7):154-162. (in Chinese)
[11] 范文亮, 陈朝晖, 李正良, 等. 滑坡概率分析中降雨的联合概率结构[J]. 土木建筑与环境工程, 2012, 34(5):57-63. FAN Wenliang, CHEN Zhaohui, LI Zhengliang, et al. Joint probabilistic structure of rainfall in analysis of landslides probability[J]. Journal of Civil,Architectural & Environmental Engineering, 2012, 34(5):57-63. (in Chinese)
[12] LI J, CHEN J. The principle of preservation of probability and the generalized density evolution equation[J]. Structural Safety, 2008, 30(11):65-77.
[13] 朱省峰, 王博, 赵付明, 等. 安徽省地质灾害气象预报预警模型研究[J]. 安徽地质, 2016, 26(1):65-68. ZHU Xingfeng, WANG Bo, ZHAO Fuming, et al. Study on forecast and warning model of geological hazard weather in Anhui province[J]. Geology of Anhui, 2016, 26(1):65-68. (in Chinese)

相似文献/References:

[1]罗培.GIS支持下的气象灾害风险评估模型——以重庆地区冰雹灾害为例[J].自然灾害学报,2007,(01):038.
 LUO Pei.GIS-based risk evaluation model of meteorological disaster: a case study on hail disaster in Chongqing Administrative Region[J].,2007,(04):038.
[2]徐刚.坡面泥石流流域地貌要素的概率分布[J].自然灾害学报,2005,(02):070.
 XU Gang.Probability distribution of geomorphic factor of debris flow on mountain slope[J].,2005,(04):070.

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2018-05-01;改回日期:2018-05-20。
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(51678092)
作者简介:李环禹(1993-),男,硕士研究生,主要从事边坡稳定可靠性与风险分析方面的研究.E-mail:634390874@zq.com
通讯作者:陈朝晖(1968-),女,教授,博士生导师,主要从事工程可靠性与风险分析.E-mail:zhaohuic@cqu.edu.cn
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01