[1]刘茂,刘斐.城市燃气管线风险评估[J].自然灾害学报,2009,(04):084-91.
 LIU Mao,LIU Fei.Risk assessment of urban gas pipeline[J].,2009,(04):084-91.
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城市燃气管线风险评估
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《自然灾害学报》[ISSN:/CN:23-1324/X]

卷:
期数:
2009年04期
页码:
084-91
栏目:
出版日期:
1900-01-01

文章信息/Info

Title:
Risk assessment of urban gas pipeline
作者:
刘茂 刘斐
南开大学城市公共安全研究中心, 天津300071
Author(s):
LIU Mao LIU Fei
Urban Public Safety Research Center, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071, China
关键词:
燃气管线失效风险分析泄漏率热辐射个人风险
Keywords:
gas pipelinefailurerisk analysisrelease ratethermal radiationindividual risk
分类号:
X913.4
摘要:
城市燃气管线是城市的重大危险源,事故后果多为燃气泄漏后发生的火灾、爆炸造成人员伤亡及建筑物坍塌,其风险评估方法的研究对于燃气管线的风险管理非常重要。对管线发生断裂的事故概率及其热辐射伤害进行了分析。引入了管线的致死长度,并定义其为在此管线长度内的失效能对特定地点的人产生致死效应。在此基础上,进行了个人风险的定量计算,即管线失效率与致死长度的乘积,并基于个人风险的可接受水平确定了管线的危险距离,为抢险救援工作提供参考。
Abstract:
Urban gas pipeline is one of the important hazardous source,the serious consequence is usually the fire and explosion due to leakage of natural gas so as to bring hazard to the vicinity.The quantitative risk assessment is very important to its risk management.This paper focuses on the pipeline leakage probability and its consequence due to the characteristic of pipeline and natural gas and estmiates the individual risk.Individual risk can be got from the pipeline failure probability which is calculated by historical data and the pipeline fatal length whichis calculated by measuring the length of pipe line with in three zones of 100%~99%,99%~50% and 50%~1% lethality and corresponding lethality prababilities.The pipeline hazardous distance is designed based on the acceptable criteria of individual risk to support the emergence rescue and planning of pipeline.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2008-6-15;改回日期:2009-5-23。
基金项目:“十五”国家科技攻关课题(2004BA803B05-03)
作者简介:刘茂(1945- ),男,教授,博士生导师,主要从事公共安全研究.E-mail:mlsafety@nanka.iedu.cn
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01