[1]娄伟平,陈海燕,吴睿.基于灰色-模糊理论的农业旱灾风险分析[J].自然灾害学报,2011,(04):090-94.
 LOU Wei-ping,CHEN Hai-yan,WU Rui.Risk analysis of agricultural drought disaster based on grey-fuzzy theory[J].,2011,(04):090-94.
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基于灰色-模糊理论的农业旱灾风险分析
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《自然灾害学报》[ISSN:/CN:23-1324/X]

卷:
期数:
2011年04期
页码:
090-94
栏目:
出版日期:
2011-06-09

文章信息/Info

Title:
Risk analysis of agricultural drought disaster based on grey-fuzzy theory
作者:
娄伟平1 陈海燕2 吴睿1
1. 新昌县气象局, 浙江 新昌 312500;
2. 浙江省气象台, 浙江 杭州 310000
Author(s):
LOU Wei-ping1 CHEN Hai-yan2 WU Rui1
1. Xinchang Meteorological Bureau, Xinchang 312500, China;
2. Zhejiang Provincial Meteorological Observatory, Hangzhou 310000, China
关键词:
农业旱灾风险分析信息扩散灰色系统灰色风险率
Keywords:
agricultural drought disasterrisk analysisinformation diffusiongrey systemgrey risk probability
分类号:
S423
摘要:
从农业旱灾的自然与社会双重属性出发,并考虑系统的不确定性,分析了农业旱灾风险。应用信息扩散理论计算了干旱出现机率,将灰色系统理论和风险分析理论相结合,在确定干旱出现机率的基础上计算农业旱灾灰色风险率,前者考虑了系统的模糊不确定性,后者考虑了对系统认知缺乏所产生的主观不确定性,完善了农业旱灾风险分析,为防灾减灾和开展政策性农业保险提供参考。
Abstract:
Risk analysis is a basis of agricutural drought disaster prevention and reduction and development of policy-guided agricultural insurance.This paper focuses on drought disaster risk analysis from disaster’s natural and social attributes,and the uncertainty of the system.The information diffusion theory was used to evaluate probability of drought,and the grey probability of drought disaster was analyzed with grey system theory and risk analysis theory based on probability of drought.The former method would consider the system’s fuzzy uncertainty and the latter one would consider the lack of awareness of the system arising from the subjective uncertainty.So agriculural drought risk analysis method has been improved,this method could be used to analyze other disaster risk.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2010-4-6;改回日期:2011-3-9。
基金项目:国家科技部星火计划项目(2008GA700164);浙江省科技厅项目(2011C22082)
作者简介:娄伟平(1970- ),男,博士研究生,高级工程师,主要从事气象灾害风险评估研究.E-mail:xclwp@163.com
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01