[1]黄崇福.风险分析基本方法探讨[J].自然灾害学报,2011,(05):001-10.
 HUANG Chong-fu.Discussion on basic methods for risk analysis[J].,2011,(05):001-10.
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风险分析基本方法探讨
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《自然灾害学报》[ISSN:/CN:23-1324/X]

卷:
期数:
2011年05期
页码:
001-10
栏目:
出版日期:
2011-07-09

文章信息/Info

Title:
Discussion on basic methods for risk analysis
作者:
黄崇福123
1. 地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室(北京师范大学), 北京100875;
2. 北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室, 北京100875;
3. 民政部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院, 北京100875
Author(s):
HUANG Chong-fu123
1. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resources Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;
2. Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education of China, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;
3. Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
关键词:
风险分析不确定性基本方法基本原理基本模式
Keywords:
risk analysisuncertaintybasic methodbasic principlebasic model
分类号:
X43
摘要:
面对未来不利事件的不确定性,对其情景的认识只能进行风险分析。人们研究出了许多的风险分析方法,但基本方法只有5种:发生概率计算法、暴露评价法、危险辨识法、期望值计算法和经验合成法。它们的共同点是:(1)明确具体风险内涵,框定风险问题涉及的系统;(2)涉及风险源、影响和后果;(3)进行不确定意义下的量化分析。由此我们总结出风险分析基本原理,并确认了自然灾害风险分析基本原理和自然灾害风险分析的基本模式。
Abstract:
Facing the uncertainty of future adverse events,what we can do to recognize the scene of the events is risk analysis.People come up with a lot of risk analysis methods,but only five basic methods: probability calculation,exposure assessment,hazard identification,expected value and integrating experiences.They have the following common characteristics:(1) specifying intension of risk and framing the system involved by the risk issue;(2) involving the risk source,effect and consequence;(3) quantitatively analyzing in the sense of uncertainty.Thus,we conclude the basic principles of risk analysis,confirm the basic principles of risk analysis of natural disasters,and affirm the basic model of risk analysis of natural disasters.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2010-11-25;改回日期:2011-7-22。
基金项目:地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室开放基金资助项目
作者简介:黄崇福(1958- ),男,博士,教授,主要从事自然灾害风险分析研究.E-mail:hchongfu@bnu.edu.cn
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01