[1]乐丛欢,丁红岩,董国海,等.基于模糊故障树的海洋立管破坏失效风险分析[J].自然灾害学报,2012,(02):173-179.
 LE Conghuan,DING Hongyan,DONG Guohai,et al.Risk analysis of failure damage to marine riser based on fuzzy fault tree[J].,2012,(02):173-179.
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基于模糊故障树的海洋立管破坏失效风险分析
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《自然灾害学报》[ISSN:/CN:23-1324/X]

卷:
期数:
2012年02期
页码:
173-179
栏目:
出版日期:
2012-04-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Risk analysis of failure damage to marine riser based on fuzzy fault tree
作者:
乐丛欢1 丁红岩2 董国海1 宋青武2 刘会勋2
1. 大连理工大学 海岸和近海工程国家重点实验室,辽宁 大连 116023;
2. 天津大学 建筑工程学院,天津 300072
Author(s):
LE Conghuan1 DING Hongyan2 DONG Guohai1 SONG Qingwu2 LIU Huixun2
1. State Key Laboratory of Coastal and Offshore Engineering,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116023,China;
2. School of Civil Engineering,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China
关键词:
海洋立管破坏失效模糊故障树定性分析定量分析风险分析
Keywords:
marine riserdestructive damagefuzzy fault treequalitative analysisquantitative analysisrisk analysis
分类号:
TE38
摘要:
针对海洋立管破坏失效事故资料不完备及发生概率缺乏精确值的现状,提出了基于模糊故障树的海洋立管破坏失效风险分析方法。通过对现有的海洋立管破坏失效事故原因的统计分析,建立了以"海洋立管破坏失效"为顶事件的故障树。在对故障树进行定性分析的基础上,得到了引起海洋立管破坏失效的105个各阶最小割集,确定了海洋立管发生破坏失效的主要模式。采用专家判断法与模糊集理论结合的方法对故障树进行了定量分析,评估了故障树底事件的发生概率,并计算了故障树顶事件的发生概率。通过模糊故障树分析得到了海洋立管系统的薄弱环节,从而可以对其采取有效措施,以降低事故发生概率及提高系统可靠性。
Abstract:
Due to incompletion information and lack of accurate data of occurrence probability about the failure damage to the marine riser, the risk analysis of the failure damage to the marine riser based on fuzzy fault tree was proposed herein. Through the statistical analysis of the causes of marine riser failures, fault tree using failure damage to the marine riser as the top event was built. Based on the qualitative analysis,105 minimum cut sets were obtained and the failure mode was ascertained. Based on experts’ estimation with the fuzzy set theory, quantitative analysis of the fault tree was given, the probability of the base events was assessed and the probability of the top event was calculated. Through these analyses, the weak links of the marine riser system could be found, and thus effective measures can be taken to decrease the probability of accident occurrence and increase the reliability of the system.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2010-11-3;改回日期:2011-4-7。
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(51109160);863高技术研究发展计划资助项目(2012AA051705)
作者简介:乐丛欢(1983-),女,博士,主要从事海洋结构工程风险评估研究.E-mail:zpy_td@163.com
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01