[1]冯民权,郝竹林,张园园,等.禹门口调水工程水源区与受水区径流丰枯遭遇风险分析研究[J].自然灾害学报,2012,(06):156-163.
 FENG Minquan,HAO Zhulin,ZHANG Yuanyuan,et al.Risk analysis of runoff rich-poor encounter between water source area and receiving area of Yumenkou water transfer project[J].,2012,(06):156-163.
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禹门口调水工程水源区与受水区径流丰枯遭遇风险分析研究
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《自然灾害学报》[ISSN:/CN:23-1324/X]

卷:
期数:
2012年06期
页码:
156-163
栏目:
出版日期:
2012-12-20

文章信息/Info

Title:
Risk analysis of runoff rich-poor encounter between water source area and receiving area of Yumenkou water transfer project
作者:
冯民权1 郝竹林1 张园园12 薛鹏松12
1. 西安理工大学 陕西省西北旱区生态水利工程重点实验室,陕西 西安 710048;
2. 西安联能自动化工程有限责任公司 陕西 西安 710119
Author(s):
FENG Minquan1 HAO Zhulin1 ZHANG Yuanyuan12 XUE Pengsong12
1. Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulic Engineering in Shaanxi,Xi’an University of Technology , Xi’an 710048 ,China;
2. Xi’an Lianneng Automatic Engineering Co.Ltd, Xi’an 710119,China
关键词:
Copula贝叶斯网络丰枯遭遇风险分析禹门口调水工程
Keywords:
CopulaBayesian networkrich-poor encounterrisk analysisYumenkou water transfer project
分类号:
TV121; X820.4
摘要:
应用Copula方法构建了禹门口调水工程黄河水源区与汾河受水区之间的二维径流联合分布模型,并对二者之间的丰枯遭遇频率进行了计算,在此基础上构建了贝叶斯网络丰枯遭遇风险管理模型,对禹门口调水工程未来运行中可能发生的丰枯遭遇及其风险进行了仿真研究。分析认为黄河水源区与汾河受水区同时出现枯水年为调水不利情况,其它丰枯组合为调水有利情况。经计算禹门口调水工程调水不利的概率为24.42%,调水有利的概率为75.58%;联合Copula函数和贝叶斯网络理论建立的禹门口调水工程水源区与受水区径流丰枯遭遇风险分析模型,可对不同情景下的丰枯遭遇和调水风险进行仿真研究,能够更真实地反映年径流量丰枯遭遇的演变规律。
Abstract:
A 2D runoff joint distribution model between the water resource area in Yellow River and the receiving area in Fenhe River for Yumenkou water transfer project was constructed with Copula method, by which the frequency of rich-poor encounter was calculated. On this basis, management model of the Bayesian network rich-poor encounter risk was established, and the rich-poor encounter and its risk possibly emerged in Yumenkou water transfer project in future running were simulated. Results show that, for the Yumenkou water transfer project, the unfavorable situation is when the dried out years of the water resource area in Yellow River and receiving area in Fenhe River occur at the same time, while other combinations of rich-poor are favorable water transfer conditions. The probabilities of disadvantages and advantages of Yumenkou water transfer project are 24.42% and 75.58%, respectively.The establishment of the model for analyzing runoff rich-poor encounter risk of water resource area and receiving area in Yumenkou water transfer project with Copula function and Bayesian network theory can stimulate the runoff rich-poor encounter and water transfer risk for different situations, and can factually reflect the evolutionary law of annual runoff.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2012-3-10;改回日期:2012-5-12。
基金项目:中央财政支持地方高校发展专项资金特色重点学科项目资助
作者简介:冯民权(1964-),男,教授,博士,主要从事水环境模拟与污染控制研究.E-mail:mqfeng@xaut.edu.cn
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01