[1]乐茂华,唐川,张丹丹,等.基于逻辑回归法的西藏地区冰湖溃决危险性预测模型[J].自然灾害学报,2014,23(05):177-184.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2014.0522]
 LE Maohua,TANG Chuan,ZHANG Dandan,et al.Logistic regression model-based approach for predicting the hazard of glacial lake outburst in Tibet[J].,2014,23(05):177-184.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2014.0522]
点击复制

基于逻辑回归法的西藏地区冰湖溃决危险性预测模型
分享到:

《自然灾害学报》[ISSN:/CN:23-1324/X]

卷:
23
期数:
2014年05期
页码:
177-184
栏目:
出版日期:
2014-10-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Logistic regression model-based approach for predicting the hazard of glacial lake outburst in Tibet
作者:
乐茂华12 唐川12 张丹丹12 马国超12
1. 成都理工大学 地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室, 四川 成都 610059;
2. 成都理工大学 环境与土木工程学院, 四川 成都 610059
Author(s):
LE Maohua12 TANG Chuan12 ZHANG Dandan12 MA Guochao12
1. State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China;
2. College of Environment and Civil Engineering, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China
关键词:
西藏地区冰湖溃决危险性预测逻辑回归模型
Keywords:
Tibet regionglacial lake outbursthazard predictionlogistic regression model
分类号:
P694
DOI:
10.13577/j.jnd.2014.0522
摘要:
以西藏地区的冰湖为研究对象,基于冰湖的野外调查、遥感影像与历史文献资料,选取32个冰湖作为样本进行了危险性分析。根据研究对象的区域特性,选取冰湖坝顶宽度、湖水位距坝顶高度与湖坝高度之比、冰舌前端距冰湖距离、冰舌段坡度、冰湖面积和补给冰川面积6个预测指标作为变量,通过对样本进行逻辑回归分析,提出了西藏地区冰湖溃决的危险性概率预测模型。基于分类阈值为50%的逻辑回归模型交叉验证结果表明,模型对已溃决冰湖样本预测的准确率为82%,对未溃决冰湖样本预测的准确率为95%,对所有冰湖样本预测的准确率为91%。按冰湖溃决的概率范围,将冰湖溃决的危险性划分为4个等级,概率值<0.30的为低等级,0.30~0.50的为中等级,0.50~0.80的为高等级,>0.80的为极高等级。
Abstract:
Based on field investigation, RS image and literature, this paper selects 32 glacial lakes as the research samples for hazard analysis. According to the regional characteristics of the research object, six predictor indices, crest width of the lake dam, ratio of the dam crest freeboard to dam crest height, lake-glacier distance, glacier tongue slope, lake area, and glacier area, were chosen as the variables, and then through the logistic regression analysis of the samples, a model of predicting the hazard of glacial-lake outburst in Tibet was proposed. With the cross-validation of logistic regression model based on the classification threshold value of 50%, the predictive model correctly classifies 82% of the lakes with outburst and 95% of the lakes without outburst, the overall accuracy being 91%. By probability ranges, the outburst hazards were classified as low(<0.30), medium(0.30-0.50), high(0.50-0.80), and extremely high(>0.80).

参考文献/References:

[1] Richardson S D, Reynolds J M. An overview of glacial hazards in the Himalayas [J]. Quaternary International, 2000,65/66:31-47.
[2] Haeberli W. Frequency and characteristics of glacier floods in the Swiss Alps. Annals of Glaciology, 1983, 4: 85-90.
[3] Worni R, Stoffel M, Huggel C, et al. Analysis and dynamic modeling of a moraine failure and glacier lake outburst flood at Ventisquero Negro, Patagonian Andes(Argentina) [J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2012: 444-445,134-145.
[4] 徐道明, 冯清华. 西藏喜马拉雅山区危险冰湖及其溃决特征[J]. 地理学报, 1989, 44(3): 343-352. XU Daoming, FENG Qinghua. Dangerous Glacial lake and outburst features in XiZang Himalayas[J]. Acta Geographical Sinica,1989,44(3):343-352. (in Chinese)
[5] 吕儒仁, 唐邦兴, 朱平一. 西藏泥石流与环境[M]. 成都: 成都科技大学出版社, 1999: 69-78. lV Ruren, TANG Bangxing, ZHU Pingyi. Debris Flow and Environment in Tibet[M]. Chengdu: Chengdu Science and Technology University Press, 1999: 69-78. (in Chinese)
[6] Huggel C, Haeberli W, Kaab A, et al. An assessment procedure for glacial hazards in the Swiss Alps. Can. Geotech., 2004, 41: 1068-1083.
[7] McKillop R J, Clague J J. Stastical, remote sensing-based approach for estimating the probability of catastrophic drainage from moraine-dammed lakes in southwestern British Columbia [J]. Global and Planetary Change, 2007, 56: 153-171.
[8] 庄树裕. 西藏喜马拉雅山地区冰湖溃决非线性预测研究[D]. 吉林: 吉林大学, 2010. ZHUANG Shuyu. Research on Nonlinear Prediction for Glacial Lake Outbursts in the Himalayas Area, Tibet[D]. JiLin: JiLin University PHD thesis, 2010. (in Chinese)
[9] 刘晶晶, 程尊兰, 李泳, 等. 西藏终碛湖溃决形式研究[J]. 地学前缘, 2009, 16(4): 372-380. LIU Jingjing, CHENG Zunlan, LI Yong, et al. A study of the outburst form of the end-moraine lake in Tibet[J]. Earth Science Frontiers,2009,16(4):372-380. (in Chinese)
[10] Dai F C, Lee C F. A spatiotemporal probabilistic modeling of storm-induced shallow landsliding using aerial photographs and logistic regression. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 2003, 28: 527-545.
[11] Begueria S, Lorente A. Landslide hazard mapping by multivariate statistics: comparison of methods and case study in the Spanish Pyrenees [J]. DAMOCLES Project Deliverables, 2002.
[12] Hanley J A, McNeil B J. The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristics(ROC) curve. Radiology, 1982: 143: 29-36.

相似文献/References:

[1]周路旭,刘建康,陈龙.藏东南交通干线(林芝段)冰湖溃决危险性分析与评价[J].自然灾害学报,2020,29(03):162.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2020.0318]
 ZHOU Luxu,LIU Jiankang,CHEN Long.Risk analysis and evaluation of glacier lake outburst in traffic route of southeast Tibet(Linzhi)[J].,2020,29(05):162.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2020.0318]

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2013-9-17;改回日期:2013-10-12。
基金项目:国土资源部公益性行业科研专项(2012-338);四川省教育厅自然科学重点项目(11ZA047)
作者简介:乐茂华(1986-),男,硕士研究生,主要从事地质灾害分析评价方面研究.E-mail: lemaohua@gmail.com
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01