[1]李香颜,张金平,陈敏.基于GIS的河南省冬小麦干热风风险评估及区划[J].自然灾害学报,2017,(03):063-70.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2017.0308]
 LI Xiangyan,ZHANG Jinping,CHEN Min.Risk assessment and zoning of winter wheat dry-hot wind in Henan Province based on GIS technology[J].,2017,(03):063-70.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2017.0308]
点击复制

基于GIS的河南省冬小麦干热风风险评估及区划
分享到:

《自然灾害学报》[ISSN:/CN:23-1324/X]

卷:
期数:
2017年03期
页码:
063-70
栏目:
出版日期:
2017-06-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
Risk assessment and zoning of winter wheat dry-hot wind in Henan Province based on GIS technology
作者:
李香颜12 张金平12 陈敏2
1. 中国气象局·河南气象局 农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室, 河南 郑州 450003;
2. 新乡市气象局, 河南 新乡 453003
Author(s):
LI Xiangyan12 ZHANG Jinping12 CHEN Min2
1. Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Support and Applied Technique, CMA/Henan Province, Zhengzhou 450003, China;
2. Xinxiang Meteorological Office, Xinxiang 453003, China
关键词:
冬小麦干热风风险评估风险区划指标体系GIS
Keywords:
winter wheatdry-hot windrisk assessmentrisk zoningindex systemGIS
分类号:
X43;S512.1
DOI:
10.13577/j.jnd.2017.0308
摘要:
干热风是影响河南省冬小麦后期生长发育及产量的重大农业气象灾害之一,对小麦安全生产造成严重威胁。根据冬小麦干热风国家气象行业标准,基于河南省冬麦区(18个地市)1980-2014年的逐日地面气象观测数据和耕地面积、冬小麦播种面积和产量、灌溉面积等统计资料,利用AHP(层次分析法)和WCA(加权综合评价法)构建以危险性、易损性、敏感性和抗灾能力为主要指标体系的小麦干热风综合风险评估模型,对河南省的干热风风险进行全面评估;并在GIS技术支持下,对其风险分布进行区划和制图表达。结果表明:河南省干热风高风险区域主要分布在驻马店、许昌、豫东商丘、开封和豫北安阳、鹤壁等地;中等风险区域主要位于南阳中东部、周口、豫北新乡、濮阳以及郑州东部和洛阳北部的部分地区;河南西北部济源、焦作以及豫西三门峡和洛阳、豫中部平顶山和漯河、信阳西部等地为干热风低风险区域。
Abstract:
The dry-hot wind is one of the major agrometeorological disasters influencing winter wheat late growth and yield in Henan Province. It is a serious threat to wheat production safety. According to the winter wheat dry-hot wind national meteorological industry standard, based on the ground meteorological observation data of 18 cities and prefectures in Henan Province day by day from 1980 to 2014 and the cultivated land area, winter wheat planting area and yield, irrigation area and other statistical data, togather with using AHP (analytic hierarchy process) and WCA (weighted comprehensive evaluation method)this paper constructs a winter wheat dry-hot wind comprehensive risk assessment model, taking hazard, vulnerability, sensitivity and anti-disaster ability as the main index system, and conducts a(over all) risk assessment of dry-hot wind in Henan province. Under the GIS support, risk zoning and drawing expression are given. The results show that:Dry-hot wind high-risk areas are mainly distributed in Zhumadian, Xuchang, Shangqiu, Kaifeng and Anyang, Hebi and other places; the medium risk areas are mainly located in the east-central of Nanyang, Zhoukou, Xinxiang, Puyang and east of Zhengzhou and north of Luoyang; the low-risk areas are northwest Henan Jiyuan, Jiaozuo, as well as the western Sanmengxia, Luoyang and Ping dingshan, Luohe in the central of Henan and the west of Xinyang.

参考文献/References:

[1] 袁学所, 周礼清. 安徽省小麦干热风灾害预评估流程[J]. 安徽农学通报, 2006, 12(7):197-198. YUAN Xuesuo, ZHOU Liqing. Pre-assessment business process for wheat dry-hot winds disasters in an hui province[J]. An hui Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2006, 12(7):197-198. (in Chinese)
[2] 胡玲, 王青春, 刘宝康, 等. 青海高原干热风的分布特征及其对气候变化的响应[J]. 气象, 2014, 40(4):450-457. HU Ling, WANG Qingchun, LIU Baokang, et al. Distribution characteristics of dry hot wind and its response to climate change in qinghai plateau[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2014, 40(4):450-457. (in Chinese)
[3] 陈怀亮, 邹春辉, 付祥建, 等. 河南省小麦干热风发生规律分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2001, 16(1):59-64. CHEN Huailiang, ZOU Chunhui, FU Xiangjian, et al. The EOF analysis on wheat dry-hot wind in henan province[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2001, 16(1):59-64. (in Chinese)
[4] 霍治国, 王石立, 等. 农业和生物气象灾害[M]. 北京:气象出版社, 2009:115-118. HUO Zhiguo, WANG Shili, et al. Agricultural and Biological Meteorological Disasters[M]. Beijing:China Meteorological Press, 2009:115-118. (in Chinese)
[5] 王建林. 现代农业气象业务[M]. 北京:气象出版社, 2010:169-170. WANG Jianlin. Modern Agricultural Meteorological Operations[M]. Beijing:China Meteorological Press, 2010:169-170. (in Chinese)
[6] B.K伊万诺夫. 西西伯利亚干热风产生的条件与特征[J]. 苏联干热风文献资料. 陕西省气象局(铅印本), 1982:34-58. B.K Ivanov. Conditions and characteristics of dry hot air in West Siberia[J]. Literature Data of Dry Hot Air in the Soviet Union. Shanxi Provincial Meteorological Bureau (letterpress), 1982:34-58. (in Chinese)
[7] 华北农业大学干热风科研协作组. 干热风的危害和防御措施的研究概况[J]. 气象科技, 1978(2):24-25. Coordinated Research Group of Hot-dry wind for wheat in Agricultural University of Huabei. Research situation of harm and prevention measures of dry hot air[J]. Meteorological Science and Technology, 1978(2):24-25. (in Chinese)
[8] 王邦锡, 杜元踌, 齐明起. 小麦在干热风条件下的生理变化[J]. 兰州大学学报, 1976(3):93-96. WANG Bangxi, DU Yuanchou, QI Mingqi. Wheat physiological changes in the dry-hot wind conditions[J]. Journal of Lanzhou University, 1976(3):93-96. (in Chinese)
[9] 北方小麦干热风科研协作组. 小麦干热风环流机理的研究[J]. 气象, 1984, 10(12):2-7. Coordinated Research Group of Hot-dry wind for wheat in North China. Study on the mechanism of wheat dry-hot wind circulation[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 1984, 10(12):2-7. (in Chinese)
[10] 郑剑非, 张增福. 廊坊地区干热风指标的确定及其区划[J]. 气象, 1979, 5(9):28-29. ZHENG Jianfei, ZHANG Zengfu. Determination of dry-hot wind index and its regionalization in langfang area[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 1979, 5(9):28-29. (in Chinese)
[11] 陈卓如, 范维申. 干热风的气候分析及长期预报[J]. 山东气象, 1984(1):1-4. CHEN Zhuoru, FAN Weishen. Climate analysis and long term forecast of dry-hot wind[J]. Journal of Shandong Meteorology, 1984(1):1-4. (in Chinese)
[12] 邓振镛, 张强, 倾继祖, 等. 气候暖干化对北方干热风的影响[J]. 冰川冻土, 2009, 31(4):664-671. DENG Zhenyong, ZHANG Qiang, QING Jizu, et al. Impact of climate warming and drying on dry-hot wind in the north of china[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2009, 31(4):664-671. (in Chinese)
[13] 赵俊芳, 赵艳霞, 郭建平, 等. 过去50年黄淮海地区冬小麦干热风发生的时空演变规律[J]. 中国农业科学, 2012, 45(14):2815-2825. ZHAO Junfang, ZHAO Yanxia, GUO Jianping, et al. Spatial-Temporal changes of dry-hot wind for winter wheat in Huang huai hai plain during the past 50 years[J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2012, 45(14):2815-2825. (in Chinese)
[14] 成林, 张志红, 方文松. 干热风对冬小麦灌浆速率和千粒重的影响[J]. 麦类作物学报, 2014, 34(2):248-254. CHEN Lin, ZHANG Zhihong, FANG Wensong. Effects of dry-hot wind on grain filling speed and 1000-kernel weight of winter wheat[J]. Journal of Triticeae Crops, 2014, 34(2):248-254. (in Chinese)
[15] 杨霏云, 朱玉洁, 刘伟昌. 华北冬麦区干热风发生规律及风险区划[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2013, 22(3):112-121. YANG Feiyun, ZHU Yujie, LIU Weichang. Occurrence rules and risk zoning of dry-hot wind in winter wheat producing areas of north china[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2013, 22(3):112-121. (in Chinese)
[16] 成林, 张志红, 常军. 近47年来河南省冬小麦干热风灾害的变化分析[J]. 中国农业气象, 2011, 32(3):456-460. CHEN Lin, ZHANG Zhihong, CHANG Jun. Analysis on the change of dry-hot wind hazard for winter wheat in last 47 years in Henan province[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2011, 32(3):456-460. (in Chinese)
[17] 赵俊芳, 郭建平, 邬定荣, 等. 2011-2050年黄淮海冬小麦、夏玉米气候生产潜力评价[J]. 应用生态学报, 2011, 22(12):3189-3195. ZHAO Junfang, GUO Jianping, WU Dingrong, et al. Climatic potential productivity of winter wheat and summer maize in huanghuaihai plain in 2011-2050[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2011, 22(12):3189-3195. (in Chinese)
[18] 朱业玉, 潘攀, 匡晓燕, 等. 河南省干旱灾害的变化特征和成因分析[J]. 中国农业气象, 2011, 32(2):311-316. ZHU Yeyu, PAN Pan, KUANG Xiaoyan, et al. Changing characteristics and causes analysis of drought disaster in Henan province[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2011, 32(2):311-316. (in Chinese)
[19] 黄崇福, 刘安林, 王野. 灾害风险基本定义的探讨[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2010, 19(6):8-16. HUANG Chongfu, LIU Anlin, WANG Ye. A discussion on basic definition of disaster risk[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2010, 19(6):8-16. (in Chinese)
[20] 王春乙, 张继权, 张京红, 等. 综合农业气象灾害风险评估与区划研究[M]. 北京:气象出版社, 2016:4-13. WANG Chunyi, ZHANG Jiquan, ZHANG Jinghong, et al. Study on Risk Evaluation and Regionalization of Comprehensive Agricultural Meteorological Disasters[M]. China Meteorological Press, 2016:4-13. (in Chinese)
[21] 史培军. 三论灾害研究的理论与实践[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2002, 11(3):1-9. SHI Peijun. Theory on disaster science and disaster dynamics[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2002, 11(3):1-9. (in Chinese)
[22] 张会, 张继权, 韩俊山. 基于GIS技术的洪涝灾害风险评估与区划研究-以辽河中下游地区为例[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2005, 14(6):141-146. ZHANG Hui, ZHANG Jiquan, HAN Junshan. GIS-based assessment and zoning of flood/water logging disaster risk:a case study on middle and lower reaches of Liaohe River[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2005, 14(6):141-146. (in Chinese)
[23] 张继权, 李宁. 主要气象灾害风险评估与管理的数量化方法及其应用[M]. 北京:北京师范大学出版社, 2007:33. ZHANG Jiquan, LI Ning. Quantitative Methods and Applications of Risk Assessment and Management on Main Meteorological Disasters[M]. Beijing:Beijing Normal University Publishing Press, 2007:33. (in Chinese)
[24] 边超钧. 陕西省玉米干旱风险评估及区划研究[D]. 南京:南京信息工程大学, 2014:20. BIAN Chaojun. Corn Drought Risk Assessment and Regionalization in Shanxi Province[D]. Nanjing:Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, 2014:20. (in Chinese)
[25] 蒋春丽, 张丽娟, 姜春艳, 等. 黄淮海地区夏玉米洪涝灾害风险区划[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2015, 24(3):235-243. JIANG Chunli, ZHANG Lijuan, JIANG Chunyan, et al. Flood disaster risk zoning of summer maize in Huanghuaihai region[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2015, 24(3):235-243. (in Chinese)
[26] 张玉静. 华北地区冬小麦主要气象灾害风险评估[D]. 北京:中国气象科学研究院, 2014:53. ZHANG Yujing. Risk Assessment of Main Meteorological Disasters of Winter Wheat in North China[D]. Beijing:Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, 2014:53. (in Chinese)

相似文献/References:

[1]邬定荣,刘建栋,刘玲,等.近50年华北平原干热风时空分布特征[J].自然灾害学报,2012,(05):167.
 WU Dingrong,LIU Jiandong,LIU Ling,et al.Spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of dry hot windy days in North China Plain in recent 50 years[J].,2012,(03):167.
[2]许彦平,姚晓红,王从书,等.甘肃天水市冬小麦条锈病发生发展的气象预测[J].自然灾害学报,2011,(01):142.
 XU Yan-ping,YAO Xiao-hong,WANG Cong-shu,et al.Meteorological prediction of formation and development of winter-wheat stripe rust in Tianshui City,Gansu Province[J].,2011,(03):142.
[3]吴荣军,史继清,关福来,等.干旱综合风险指标的构建及风险区划 ——以河北省冬麦区为例[J].自然灾害学报,2013,(01):145.
 WU Rongjun,SHI Jiqing,GUAN Fulai,et al.Integrated index construction and zoning of drought risk:a case study of winter wheat area in Hebei Province[J].,2013,(03):145.
[4]李茂松,王道龙,张强,等.2004-2005年黄淮海地区冬小麦冻害成因分析[J].自然灾害学报,2005,(4):051.
 LI Mao-Song,WANG Dao-long,ZHANG Qiang,et al.Cause analysis of frost damage to winter wheat in Huang-Huai-Hai plain during 2004-2005[J].,2005,(03):051.
[5]李茂松,王道龙,钟秀丽,等.冬小麦霜冻害研究现状与展望[J].自然灾害学报,2005,(4):072.
 LI Mao-song,WANG Dao-long,ZHONG Xiu-li,et al.Current situation and prospect of research on frost of winter wheat[J].,2005,(03):072.
[6]张玉静,王春乙,张继权.华北地区冬小麦干旱危险性分析[J].自然灾害学报,2014,(06):183.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2014.0623]
 ZHANG Yujing,WANG Chunyi,ZHANG Jiquan.Hazard analysis of drought disaster for winter wheat in north China[J].,2014,(03):183.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2014.0623]
[7]俄有浩,霍治国,马玉平.北方春小麦种植区小麦种植结构变化的气候依据与冻害风险[J].自然灾害学报,2015,(05):149.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2015.0517]
 E Youhao,HUO Zhiguo,MA Yuping.Climate cause for the change in cropping structure from spring wheat to winter wheat and its freeze injury risk in north China[J].,2015,(03):149.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2015.0517]
[8]王连喜,缪淼,李琪,等.陕西省冬小麦干旱时空变化特征分析[J].自然灾害学报,2016,(02):035.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2016.0204]
 WANG Lianxi,MIAO Miao,LI Qi,et al.Analysis of spatiotemporal variation characteristics of winter wheat drought in Shaanxi Province[J].,2016,(03):035.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2016.0204]
[9]李军玲,郭其乐,任丽伟.基于近地高光谱和环境星高光谱数据的冬小麦越冬冻害遥感监测方法研究[J].自然灾害学报,2017,(02):053.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2017.0207]
 LI Junling,GUO Qile,REN Liwei.Study on monitoring freezing injury to winter wheat in overwinter period based on hyper-spectrometer and HJ1A-HSI image[J].,2017,(03):053.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2017.0207]
[10]杨霏云,朱玉洁,刘伟昌.华北冬麦区干热风发生规律及风险区划[J].自然灾害学报,2013,(03):112.
 YANG Feiyun,ZHU Yujie,LIU Weichang.Occurrence rules and risk zoning of dry-hot wind in winter wheat producing areas of north China[J].,2013,(03):112.

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2016-02-01;改回日期:2016-11-02。
基金项目:中国气象局/农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室开放基金项目(AMF201409)资助
作者简介:李香颜(1981-),女,工程师,硕士研究生,主要从事农业气象研究.E-mail:lxynqzx@163.com
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01