[1]陈妮娜,张玉书,张硕,等.2004-2013年辽宁省主要气象灾害分布及预警服务分析[J].自然灾害学报,2017,(03):176-184.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2017.0321]
 CHEN Nina,ZHANG Yushu,ZHANG Shuo,et al.Analysis of main meteorological disasters distribution and early warning service in Liaoning Province from 2004 to 2013[J].,2017,(03):176-184.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2017.0321]
点击复制

2004-2013年辽宁省主要气象灾害分布及预警服务分析
分享到:

《自然灾害学报》[ISSN:/CN:23-1324/X]

卷:
期数:
2017年03期
页码:
176-184
栏目:
出版日期:
2017-06-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
Analysis of main meteorological disasters distribution and early warning service in Liaoning Province from 2004 to 2013
作者:
陈妮娜12 张玉书1 张硕2 刘静2 王婷3 徐亚琪4
1. 中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所, 辽宁 沈阳 110166;
2. 辽宁省气象灾害监测预警中心, 辽宁 沈阳 110166;
3. 辽宁省气象科学研究所, 辽宁 沈阳 110166;
4. 盖州市气象局, 辽宁 盖州 115200
Author(s):
CHEN Nina12 ZHANG Yushu1 ZHANG Shuo2 LIU Jing2 WANG Ting3 XU Yaqi4
1. The Institute of Atmospheric Environment, China Meteorological Administration, Shenyand 110166, China;
2. Meteorological Disaster Monitoring and Early Warning Center of Liaoning Province, Shenyang 110166, China;
3. Liaoning Institute of Meteorological Science, Shenyang 110166, China;
4. Meteorological Bureau of Gaizhou, Gaizhou 115200, China
关键词:
辽宁省气象灾害预警服务
Keywords:
Liaoning Provincemeteorological disasterearly warning services
分类号:
S166;X43
DOI:
10.13577/j.jnd.2017.0321
摘要:
为提高对辽宁省各类气象灾害的认识,降低气象灾害对农业、林业等的危害,利用2004-2013年的灾情资料及预警信号发布等资料,分析了辽宁省主要气象灾害的分布特征及预警服务情况。结果表明:2004-2013年辽宁省主要气象灾害有大雾、干旱、暴雨等,其中大雾灾害最多,占18.8%,其次为干旱灾害,占15.5%,霜冻灾害最少,占0.1%,各类灾害随着年份出现先增加后减少的趋势。大雾灾害主要发生在大连和沈阳地区,干旱灾害主要发生在辽西地区,暴雨灾害主要发生在庄河、普兰店一带;2004-2013年辽宁省共发布了暴雨、大雾、大风等13种气象灾害预警信号,各类灾害随着年份的增加呈增加趋势;大风预警信号发布次数最多,其次是大雾预警信号,高温预警信号最少。大雾预警信号主要有两个分布区域,集中在大连-庄河一带和锦州-黑山一带,暴雨预警信号主要分布区集中在丹东-宽甸一带,均与灾害分布区域基本一致,服务效果较好。近几年辽宁省各类气象灾害预警信号TS评分和提前时间均呈增加趋势,准确率总体水平达到了82.1%,提前时间达到了196 min,为各级政府、部门及社会抗灾、救灾、避灾提供了科学决策依据。
Abstract:
To improve the understanding of all kinds of meteorological disasters in Liaoning Province, reduce the harmfulness of meteorological disasters to agriculture and forestry, this paper uses disaster information, early warning signals and other data from 2004 to 2013 to analyze the major meteorological disasters and early warning service in Liaoning Province. The results indicate that major meteorological disasters in Liaoning Province from 2004 to 2013 are dense fog, drought, rainstorm and so on, in which dense fog disaster is the most, accounting for 18.8%, and followed by drought, accounting for 15.5%, frost disaster is the least, accounting for only 0.1%. All kinds of meteorological disasters have trend of increase then decrease by year. The dense fog disaster, mainly occurs in Dalian and Shenyang area. The drought disaster, mainly occurs in western Liaoning Province. The rainstorm disaster, mainly occurs in Zhuanghe, Pulandian area. Thirteen kinds of meteorological disaster warning signals are released in Liaoning Province from 2004 to 2013,including rain storm, fog, wind storm, etc. All kinds of disasters increase by year. In which, gale warning signal is the most, followed by dense fog warning signal, high temperature warning signal is the least. The dense fog warning signal has two main distribution area, concentrated in Dalian-Zhuanghe and Jinzhou area-Montenegro area. While the rainstorm warning signal mainly concentrates in the area of Dandong-Kuandian area. Regional distribution of dense fog and rainstorm warning signal and disaster are unanimous, and the service effect are better. The TS score and ahead time of various types of meteorological disaster warning signal in Liaoning Province are increased by year in recent years. The overall accuracy rate reaches 82.1%, and the ahead time reaches 196 minutes, which provided scientific basis for disaster resislance, relief and escape of all levels of government, departments.

参考文献/References:

[1] 金磊, 明发源. 责任重于泰山-减灾科学管理指南[M]. 北京:气象出版社, 1996:31-61. JIN Lei, MING Fayuan. Responsibility over Taishan-Guidelines for Scientific Management of Disaster Reduction[M]. Beijing:Meteorological Press, 1996:31-61. (in Chinese).
[2] 郭进修, 李泽椿. 我国气象灾害的分类与防灾减灾对策[J]. 灾害学, 2005, 20(4):106-110. GUO Jinxiu, LI Zechun. Classif ication of meteorological disasters and Strategies for hazard prevention and reduction in China[J]. Journal of Catastrophology, 2005, 20(4):106-110. (in Chinese)
[3] 陈云峰, 高歌. 近年我国气象灾害损失的初步分析[J]. 气象, 2010, 36(2):76-80. CHEN Yunfeng, GAO Ge. An analysis to losses caused by meteorological disasters in China during 1989-2008[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2010, 36(2):76-80. (in Chinese)
[4] 王昂生. 中国减灾与可持续发展[M]. 北京:科学出版社, 2007. WANG Angsheng. Disaster Reduction and Sustainable Development in China[M]. Beijing:Science Press, 2007. (in Chinese)
[5] 刘彤, 闫天池. 我国的主要气象灾害及其经济损失[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2011, 20(2):90-95. LIU Tong, YAN Tianchi. Main meteorological disasters in China and their economic losses[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2011, 20(2):90-95. (in Chinese)
[6] 张淑杰, 张玉书, 李广霞, 等. 2005年气象灾害对辽宁农业生产影响评估[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2006, 22(6):46-49. ZHANG Shujie, ZHANG Yushu, LI Guangxia, et al. Evaluating of the effects of meteorological disaster on liaoning agricultural production in 2005[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2006, 22(6):46-49. (in Chinese)
[7] 周淑贞. 上海城区雾的形成和特征[J]. 应用气象学报, 1991, 2(2):140-146. ZHOU Shuzhen. The formation and features of fog in shanghai urban area[J]. Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology, 1991, 2(2):140-146. (in Chinese)
[8] 金磊. 城市灾害学原理[M]. 北京:气象出版社, 1997. JIN Lei. Principles of Urban Disaster[M]. Beijing:Meteorological Press, 1997. (in Chinese)
[9] 陈传雷, 蒋大凯, 孔令军. 近53年辽宁省雾的时空分布及成因分析[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2006, 22(1):21-24. CHEN Chuanlei, JIANG Dakai, KONG Lingjun. Temporal and spatial distributions of the fogs and their formation conditions in liaoning province during recent 53 years[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2006, 22(1):21-24. (in Chinese)
[10] 蒋大凯, 闵锦忠, 陈传雷, 等. 辽宁省区域性大雾预报研究[J]. 气象科学, 2007, 27(5):578-583. JIANG Dakai, MIN Jinzhong, CHEN Chuanlei, et al. The forecast research about the regional heavy fog in liaoning province[J]. Scientia Meteorological Sinica, 2007, 27(5):578-583. (in Chinese)
[11] Obasi GOP. WMO’s role in the international decade for natural disaster reduction[J]. Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society, 2010, 75(9):1655-1.
[12] 李波, 孟庆楠. 中国气象灾害大典-辽宁卷[M]. 北京:气象出版社, 2005:92-135. LI Bo, MENG Qingnan. Meteorological Disaster Ceremony of China-Liaoning Volume[M]. Beijing:Meteorological Press, 2005:92-135. (in Chinese)
[13] 吴琼, 赵春雨, 王大钧, 等. 1951-2014年辽宁省气象干旱时空特征分析[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2016, 30(3):151-157. WU Qiong, ZHAO Chunyu, WANG Dajun, et al. Spatial and temporal characteristics of meteorological drought in liaoning province from 1951 to 2014[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2016, 30(3):151-157. (in Chinese)
[14] 张国林, 姚玉凤, 梁群, 等. 近500年辽宁西部地区干旱成因分析及防御[J]. 中国农业气象, 2007, 28(增):53-55. ZHANG Guolin, YAO Yufeng, LIANG Qun, et al. Analysis and prevention of drought cause in western liaoning in recent 500 years[J]. Chinese Journal of Agricultural Meteorology, 2007, 28(applied):53-55. (in Chinese)
[15] Tao SY, Ding YH. Observational evidence of the influence of the Qinghai-Xizang(Tibet) Plateau on the occurrence of heavy rain and severe convective storms in China[J]. Bul. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 1981, 62(1):23-30.
[16] 张新主, 章新平, 张剑民, 等. 1999-2008年湖南省暴雨特征分析[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2011, 20(1):19-25. ZHANG Xinzhu, ZHANG Xinping, ZHANG Jian min, et al. Characteristic analysis of heavy rainfall in hunan province from 1999 to 2008[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2011, 20(1):19-25. (in Chinese)
[17] 郑秀雅, 张廷治, 白人海. 东北暴雨[M]. 北京:气象出版社, 1992:2-3. ZHENG Xiuya, ZHANG Tingzhi, BAI Renhai. Rainstorm in Northeast China[M]. Beijing:Meteorological Press, 1992:2-3. (in Chinese)
[18] 王东海, 钟水新, 刘英, 等.东北暴雨的研究[J]. 地球科学进展, 2007, 22(6):549-560. WANG Donghai, ZHONG Shuixin, LIU Ying, et al. Study on the heavy rainfall in northeast China[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2007, 22(6):549-560. (in Chinese)
[19] 杨青, 韩秀君, 高松影, 等. 1960-2011年辽宁省大暴雨时空分布特征[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2015, 31(1):34-42. YANG Qing, HAN Xiujun, GAO Songying, et al. Temporal and spatial characteristics of heavy rainstorm from 1960 to 2011 in liaoning province[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2015, 31(1):34-42. (in Chinese)
[20] 谢萍, 周金莲. 2012年湖北省主要气象灾害分布及预警服务分析[J]. 环境科学与技术, 2015, 38(6P):426-429. XIE Ping, ZHOU Jinlian. Analysis on the main meteorological disasters 2012 in hubei province and the alerting services[J]. Environmental Science & Technology, 2015, 38(6):426-429. (in Chinese)
[21] 徐亚琪, 陈妮娜, 王一文, 等. 辽宁一次短时大暴雨过程中暴雨预警信号的发布及其成因分析[J]. 中国农学通报, 2015, 31(32):181-187. XU Yaqi, CHEN Nina, WANG Yiwen, et al. Rainstorms warning and cause analysis of a short-time torrential rain in liaoning province[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2015, 31(32):181-187. (in Chinese)

相似文献/References:

[1]李中才,高琴,冯述虎,等.基于气象灾害预报的作物种植类型决策方法[J].自然灾害学报,2012,(02):169.
 LI Zhongcai,GAO Qin,FENG Shuhu,et al.Decision-making for crop’s planting types based on meteorological disaster forecast[J].,2012,(03):169.
[2]祝燕德,肖岩,廖玉芳,等.气象灾害预警机制与社会应急响应的思考[J].自然灾害学报,2010,(04):191.
 ZHU,Yan-de,XIAO Yan,et al.Thinking on early warning mechanism of meteorological disasters and social emergency response[J].,2010,(03):191.
[3]谭方颖,王建林,宋迎波.华北平原气候变暖对气象灾害发生趋势的影响[J].自然灾害学报,2010,(05):125.
 TAN Fang-ying,WANG Jian-lin,SONG Ying-bo.Impacts of climate warming on trend of meteorological disasters in the North China Plain[J].,2010,(03):125.
[4]刘彤,闫天池.我国的主要气象灾害及其经济损失[J].自然灾害学报,2011,(02):090.
 LIU Tong,YAN Tian-chi.Main meteorological disasters in China and their economic losses[J].,2011,(03):090.
[5]王琼.渤海西岸盐业气象灾害灾损评估方法研究[J].自然灾害学报,2011,(02):183.
 WANG Qiong.A study on loss assessment of meteorological disasters in salt industry on west coast of the Bohai Sea[J].,2011,(03):183.
[6]房世波,阳晶晶,周广胜.30年来我国农业气象灾害变化趋势和分布特征[J].自然灾害学报,2011,(05):069.
 FANG Shi-bo,YANG Jin-jin,ZHOU Guang-sheng.Change trend and distributive characteristics of agrometeorological disasters in China in recent 30 years[J].,2011,(03):069.
[7]罗培.GIS支持下的气象灾害风险评估模型——以重庆地区冰雹灾害为例[J].自然灾害学报,2007,(01):038.
 LUO Pei.GIS-based risk evaluation model of meteorological disaster: a case study on hail disaster in Chongqing Administrative Region[J].,2007,(03):038.
[8]周美琴,周涛,史培军.“深圳—巴颜浩特”地理样带气象灾害损失——自然与人文因素影响分析[J].自然灾害学报,2008,(01):062.
 ZHOU Mei-qin,ZHOU Tao,SHI Pei-jun.Meteorologic disaster losses in Shenzhen-Bayanhaote geographic transect:influence analysis of natural and human factors[J].,2008,(03):062.
[9]傅敏宁,郑有飞,樊建勇,等.鄱阳湖地区生态环境与气象灾害监测系统[J].自然灾害学报,2008,(01):134.
 FU Min-ning,ZHENG You-fei,FAN Jian-yong,et al.Ecological environment and meteorological disaster monitoring system in Poyang Lake area:design and application of the system[J].,2008,(03):134.
[10]张星,陈惠,吴菊薪.气象灾害影响福建粮食生产安全的机理分析[J].自然灾害学报,2008,(02):150.
 ZHANG Xing,CHEN Hui,WU Ju-xin.Cause analysis of meteorological disaster effect on safety in production of grain in Fujian Province[J].,2008,(03):150.

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2016-07-20;改回日期:2016-09-14。
基金项目:辽宁省气象局博士科研专项(D201505);中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2015-017)
作者简介:陈妮娜(1986-),女,高级工程师,主要从事农业气象灾害和短临预报预警方面的研究.E-mail:ninachen.yu@163.com
通讯作者:张玉书(1963-),女,研究员,主要从事农业气象及卫星遥感应用研究.E-mail:yushhuzhang@126.com
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01