[1]刘文波,张明媛,袁永博.基于模糊DEMATEL关键基础设施灾害环境下的关联影响分析[J].自然灾害学报,2018,(01):088-95.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2018.0111]
 LIU Wenbo,ZHANG Mingyuan,YUAN Yongbo.Analysis of critical infrastructures association under disaster environment based on fuzzy DEMATEL[J].,2018,(01):088-95.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2018.0111]
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基于模糊DEMATEL关键基础设施灾害环境下的关联影响分析
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《自然灾害学报》[ISSN:/CN:23-1324/X]

卷:
期数:
2018年01期
页码:
088-95
栏目:
出版日期:
2018-02-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
Analysis of critical infrastructures association under disaster environment based on fuzzy DEMATEL
作者:
刘文波 张明媛 袁永博
大连理工大学 建设工程学部, 辽宁 大连 116024
Author(s):
LIU Wenbo ZHANG Mingyuan YUAN Yongbo
Faculty of Infrastructure Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China
关键词:
关键基础设施系统关联关系IIMDEMATEL三角模糊数
Keywords:
critical infrastructure systemassociationIIMDEMATELtriangular fuzzy number
分类号:
N945;X9
DOI:
10.13577/j.jnd.2018.0111
摘要:
构建关键基础设施一阶和高阶ⅡM模型,从宏观角度定量分析不同关键基础设施系统间的相互依赖影响。利用三角模糊数修正专家评价估计值,减小主观因素影响,运用完善的DEMATEL方法,确定关联矩阵,二者结合可更有效的量化关键基础设施间的关联关系。模型应用于自然灾害案例,根据关联矩阵对比分析五大关键基础设施系统间的相互影响程度;根据一阶和高阶ⅡM模型定量对比说明高阶循环依赖加剧了各系统受影响程度,对初始受扰动系统的影响尤为明显,灾害环境下为有侧重的对关键基础设施系统进行保护和有效的开展城市应急准备提供依据。
Abstract:
Constructed infrastructure input-output model for the first-order and the higher-order to quantitative analyze the effect of interdependence from a macroscopic view. Introduced triangular fuzzy number to correct the estimated value of experts which would reduce subjective factors. Used improved DEMATEL to determine the incidence matrix. The combination of each other quantifies the association more accurate and effective. Apply the model to the actual case of disaster and make the comparative analysis of interdependence on five critical infrastructures based on the incidence matrix interaction. The model illustrates that the higher-order cyclic interdependence has deeper effects, especially to the system of initial disturbance. So it is useful for protection and effective emergency preparedness of critical infrastructures.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2017-03-30;改回日期:2017-07-24。
基金项目:辽宁省自然科学基金(2015020611);辽宁省教育厅一般项目(L2014034)
作者简介:刘文波(1992-),女,硕士研究生,主要从事生命线系统防灾减灾方面的研究.E-mail:bobo0419@yeah.net
通讯作者:张明媛(1981-),女,副教授,博士,主要从事生命线工程防灾减灾、工程项目管理.E-mail:myzhang@dlut.edu.cn
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01