[1]韩培锋,田述军,樊晓一,等.芦山地震触发次生灾害特点统计分析及规律预测[J].自然灾害学报,2018,(01):120-126.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2018.0115]
 HAN Peifeng,TIAN Shujun,FAN Xiaoyi,et al.Statistical analysis and forecasting of the secondary disasters induced by Lushan Earthquake[J].,2018,(01):120-126.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2018.0115]
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芦山地震触发次生灾害特点统计分析及规律预测
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《自然灾害学报》[ISSN:/CN:23-1324/X]

卷:
期数:
2018年01期
页码:
120-126
栏目:
出版日期:
2018-02-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
Statistical analysis and forecasting of the secondary disasters induced by Lushan Earthquake
作者:
韩培锋123 田述军1 樊晓一1 盛晓州4
1. 西南科技大学 土木工程与建筑学院, 四川 绵阳 621101;
2. 工程材料与结构冲击振动四川省重点实验室, 四川 绵阳 621010;
3. 清华大学 水沙科学与水利水电工程国家重点实验室, 北京 100084;
4. 如东县住房和城乡建设局, 江苏 南通 226400
Author(s):
HAN Peifeng123 TIAN Shujun1 FAN Xiaoyi1 SHENG Xiaozhou4
1. School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang 621010, China;
2. Shock and Vibration of Engineering Materials and Strnctures Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Mianyang 621010, China;
3. State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;
4. Housing and Urban-rural Development of Rudong, Nantong 226400, China
关键词:
芦山地震次生灾害灾害统计分析灾害预测
Keywords:
Lushan earthquakesecondary disasterdisaster statisticsanalysisdisaster prediction
分类号:
X9;P694
DOI:
10.13577/j.jnd.2018.0115
摘要:
芦山地震后次生灾害造成大量的人员伤亡和财产损失,有效分析并预测芦山地震次生灾害规律将有助于灾区的灾害评价和灾后重建工作。震后,四川省国土局组织中科院成都山地所开展芦山地震次生灾害风险评估,本人作为项目组成员参与其中。本文利用芦山地震后四川国土部门和中科院山地所提供的灾害相关统计数据进行分析,发现庐山地震后次生灾害类型主要为崩塌、滑坡和泥石流等,达到灾害总量的99%,其中97%为小中型灾害。统计发现,地震各主要县市地质灾害密度差异较大,地震烈度等级越高,区域内各种次生灾害的密度就越大,大型规模次生灾害的密度也越大。本研究利用庐山地震灾害密度数据拟合多项式,并利用汶川地震灾害统计数据和国土局统计的芦山地震灾害密度数据对多项式进行对比验证,发现拟合公式计算结果与统计数据基本吻合。本研究得出的拟合多项式以及相关的统计规律将为庐山地震后预测崩塌和滑坡等次生灾害提供参考,为震后灾区重建和灾害评估提供科学指导。
Abstract:
After Lushan earthquake, secondary disasters caused heavy casualties and property damage. Effective analysis and prediction of the secondary disasters induced by Lushan earthquake will benefit the disaster evaluation and the post-disaster reconstruction. Sichuan Land and Resources Bureau invited the Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment of Chengdu to assess the risk for secondary disasters, I participate in the project as a team member. Based on the statistical data from Sichuan Land and Resources Bureau and the Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment of Chengdu, the present study found that 97% of the secondary disasters of Lushan earthquake were small and medium scale and 99% of which were collapses, landslides and debris flow. The density of secondary disasters varies in different areas, which increased with the seismic intensity of earthquake. The present study fitted a polynomial curve for the density of collapses and landslides disaster based on the statistical data mentioned above. This polynomial fits the data of Wenchuan and Lushan earthquake very well,which can provide useful information for the prediction of collapse and landslide disasters after earthquake in Sichuan. The statistic data and rules of the present study will benefit the disaster evaluation and post-disaster reconstruction.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2016-11-04;改回日期:2017-05-16。
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41401195,41272297);清华大学水沙科学与水利水电工程国家重点实验室开放基金项目(sklhse-2016-D-04);四川省科技厅重点研发项目(18ZDYF3294);四川省科技支撑计划资助(2015SZ0217);西南科技大学博士基金项目资助(14zx7135);西南科技大学2016年度实验技术研究项目(16syjs-21)
作者简介:韩培锋(1984-),男,讲师,博士,主要从事地质灾害研究.E-mail:hanpeifeng@yeah.net
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01