[1]张蕾,侯英雨,杨冰韵,等.长江流域一季稻高温热害分布特征及风险分析[J].自然灾害学报,2018,(02):107-115.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2018.0213]
 ZHANG Lei,HOU Yingyu,YANG Bingyun,et al.Spatial-temporal characteristics and risk analysis of heat stress hazard of single-season rice across Yangtze River reaches[J].,2018,(02):107-115.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2018.0213]
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长江流域一季稻高温热害分布特征及风险分析
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《自然灾害学报》[ISSN:/CN:23-1324/X]

卷:
期数:
2018年02期
页码:
107-115
栏目:
出版日期:
2018-04-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
Spatial-temporal characteristics and risk analysis of heat stress hazard of single-season rice across Yangtze River reaches
作者:
张蕾1 侯英雨1 杨冰韵2 黄大鹏3
1. 国家气象中心, 北京 100081;
2. 国家卫星气象中心, 北京 100081;
3. 国家气候中心, 北京 100081
Author(s):
ZHANG Lei1 HOU Yingyu1 YANG Bingyun2 HUANG Dapeng3
1. National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081, China;
2. National Satellite Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081, China;
3. National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China
关键词:
高温热害日最高温度时空分布分布函数风险
Keywords:
heat stressdaily maximum temperaturespatial-temporal distributiondistribution functionrisk
分类号:
S46;X43
DOI:
10.13577/j.jnd.2018.0213
摘要:
基于长江流域一季稻区75个农业气象观测站观测数据和逐日气象数据,建立典型高温年份一季稻灾损和高温热害表征因子关系,筛选关键致灾因子、构建高温热害致灾等级指标,分析一季稻热害致灾时空分布规律。以多种分布函数对高温致灾因子序列进行拟合,筛选最优分布函数,综合热害强度及其风险概率进行高温热害致灾风险分析。结果表明:一季稻高温热害致灾程度与高温过程的日最高温度关系显著,以38.9℃、39.5℃、40.2℃、41.5℃为轻度、中度、较重、重度致灾热害的阈值。20世纪60至80年代致灾热害发生范围和次数减少,90年代稍有增加,21世纪后明显增大;致灾热害基本以轻度、中度和较重等级为主,80年代发生站次较少,重度致灾热害发生较少、21世纪后明显增加。重庆中部和北部为高温致灾热害发生的高频区。综合致灾强度和风险概率的致灾较高风险区主要集中在重庆和四川盆地东部地区。整体看,一季稻高温致灾热害范围和强度将呈扩大增强的趋势,需采取一定防范管理措施以应对气候变化、保障粮食稳产高产。
Abstract:
Using up-to-date data of single-season rice phenology observation from 75 agro-meteorological stations and relevant daily temperatures from 1961 to 2015 across Yangtze River reaches, vital factor was identified through stepwise regression analysis of date series of heat induced loss and corresponding three factors. Based on relationship between yield loss and vital factor, critical value was calculated, and accordingly spatiotemporal characteristics of heat stress hazard were detected. Optimal function was implemented to fit the distribution of vital factor at each station, through comparisons among 10 distribution functions co-tested by Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Anderson-Darling and Chi-Squared methods. Intensity of heat stress hazard and its probability was integrated to represent risk of heat stress hazard. The results elucidated that the heat stress hazard was correlated to daily maximum temperature, but had little relationship with accumulated number of days and thermal time. The critical value of the maximum temperature was 38.9℃, 39.5℃, 40.2℃, and 41.5℃, corresponding to low, medium, high and heavy heat stress hazard respectively. The extent and frequency of heat stress hazard decreased from 1960 s to 1980 s, and increased since 1990 s. The number of low, medium, high heat stress hazard process was greater than that of heavy heat stress hazard process. At the decadal scale, the number decreased during 1960 s-1970 s-1980 s and increased from 1990 s. The minimum values of the number were identified at low, medium, high heat stress hazard level, while an obvious increasing trend after 2000 was existed at heavy heat stress hazard level. Integrated risk index showed that high risk was mainly located in Chongqing and eastern Sichuan Basin where should receive more attention. Generally, the heat stress hazard will tend to be more frequent and series, which can prompt us that the specific adaptive strategies are necessary for Yangtze River reaches to maintain rice production and cope with climate change.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2017-03-17;改回日期:2017-04-26。
基金项目:公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201506001)
作者简介:张蕾(1987-),男,工程师,硕士,主要从事农业气象灾害预警与风险评估.E-mail:leizhang@cma.gov.cn
通讯作者:侯英雨(197-),男,正研级高级工程师,主要从事农业气象卫星遥感应用研究.E-mail:yyhou@cma.gov.cn
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01