[1]吴胜安,邢彩盈,朱晶晶.南海和西北太平洋台风潜在破坏力的气候特征初步研究[J].自然灾害学报,2018,(02):122-129.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2018.0215]
 WU Shengan,XING Caiying,ZHU Jingjing.Climate characteristics of Typhoon destruction potential in South China Sea and the western North Pacific[J].,2018,(02):122-129.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2018.0215]
点击复制

南海和西北太平洋台风潜在破坏力的气候特征初步研究
分享到:

《自然灾害学报》[ISSN:/CN:23-1324/X]

卷:
期数:
2018年02期
页码:
122-129
栏目:
出版日期:
2018-04-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
Climate characteristics of Typhoon destruction potential in South China Sea and the western North Pacific
作者:
吴胜安12 邢彩盈12 朱晶晶12
1. 海南省气候中心, 湖南 海口 570203;
2. 海南省南海气象防灾减灾重点实验室, 海南 海口 570203
Author(s):
WU Shengan12 XING Caiying12 ZHU Jingjing12
1. Hainan Climate Center, Haikou 570203, China;
2. Key Laboratory of South China Sea Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hainan Province, Haikou 570203, China
关键词:
南海和西北太平洋台风破坏潜力台风破坏时间气候特征
Keywords:
South China Sea and the western North PacificTyphoon destruction potentialTyphoon destruction timeclimate characteristics
分类号:
P44;X43
DOI:
10.13577/j.jnd.2018.0215
摘要:
本文在定义台风潜在破坏力(TYDP)、台风破坏时间(TYDT)和台风潜在破坏强度(TYDS)基础上,利用中国气象局上海台风所整理的最优路径数据集资料,分析了南海和西北太平洋上三者的分布特征和变化特征。结果表明:台风破坏力和破坏时间主体分布在南海中北部、台湾岛和菲律宾以东的西北太平洋;主要集中在下半年,高峰月主要分布在9月、8月或10月,南海各区台风活动期长度和高峰月有明显差异;南海和西北太平洋区域台风潜在破坏力、破坏时间及破坏强度主体呈减小(少、弱)趋势,但存在一定的空间差异;台风破坏强度减弱倾向的空间一致性较好,南海和西北太平洋区域的东西两侧呈微弱的增强趋势。
Abstract:
This article defined the typhoon destruction potential (TYDP), typhoon destruction time (TYDT) and typhoon destruction strength (TYDS). Based on the typhoon data (1949-2014) from the China Meteorological Administration, the spatial distribution, monthly distribution, and variation characteristics of them over the South China Sea (SCS) and the Northwest Pacific (WNP) were analyzed. The results showed that TYDP and TYDT mainly distributed in the north-central part of the south China sea and east of Taiwan and the Philippines, and mainly concentrated in the second half of the year, with the peak appearing on August, September, or October. The typhoon active season duration and peak months varied greatly among different areas of SCS. TYDP,TYDT and TYDS decreased (weakened) as a whole on SCS and WNP from 1949 to 2014, though there were some spatial differences. The weaken trend of TYDS had better spatial coherency comparing with TYDP and TYDT, with tiny strengthen trend over east and west wing of the study area.

参考文献/References:

[1] 王东生, 屈雅. 西北太平洋和南海热带气旋的气候特征分析[J]. 气象, 2007,07,67-74. WANG Dongsheng, QU Ya. Climatic Characteristics of tropical cyclones over northwestern Pacific and South China Sea[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2007(7):67-74. (in Chinese)
[2] 梁建茵, 陈子通, 万齐林, 等. 热带气旋"黄蜂"登陆过程诊断分析[J]. 热带气象学报, 2003, 19(增刊):45-55. LIANG Jianyin, CHEN Zitong, WAN Qilin, et al. Diagnostic analysis of the landfall progress tropical cyclone "VongFong"[J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2003, 19(supplementary issue):45-55. (in Chinese)
[3] 钱燕珍, 张寒. TC"森拉克"路径与预报难点分析[J]. 气象, 2004, 30(9):19-23. QIAN Yanzhen, ZHANG Han. Analysis of moving track of Typhoon Sinlaku and some forecast difficulty[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2004, 30(9):19-23. (in Chinese)
[4] 陈联寿, 孟智勇. 我国热带气旋研究十年进展[J]. 大气科学, 2001, 25(3):420-432. CHEN Lianshou, MENG Zhiyong. An overview on tropical cyclone research progress in China during the past ten years[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2001, 25(3):420-432. (in Chinese)
[5] WU Yanjun, WU Shengan, ZHAI Panmao. The impact of tropical cyclones on Hainan Island’s extreme and total precipitation[J]. Int. J. Climatol., 2007(27):1059-1064.
[6] 李英, 陈联寿, 王继志. 登陆热带气旋长久维持与迅速消亡的大尺度对流特征[J]. 气象学报, 2004, 62(2):167-179. LI Ying, CHEN Lianshou, WANG Jizhi. The diagnostic analysis on the characteristics of large circulation corresponding to the sustaining and decaying of tropical cyclone after it’s landfall[J]. Acta Meteorological Sinica, 2004, 62(2):167-179. (in Chinese)
[7] 吴迪生, 赵雪, 冯伟忠, 等. 南海灾害性土台风统计分析[J]. 热带气象学报, 2005(3):309-314. WU Disheng, ZHAO Xue, FENG Weizhong, et al. The statistical analyse to the local harmful typhoon of South China Sea[J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2005(3):309-314. (in Chinese)
[8] 袁金南, 郑彬. 广东热带气旋降水年代际变化特征的分析[J]. 热带气象学报, 2010, 26(4):387-391. YUAN Jinnan, ZHENG Bin. An analysis on interdecadal variation features of tropical cyclone precipitation in Guangdong province of China[J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2010, 26(4):387-391. (in Chinese)
[9] 尹宜舟, 罗勇, 肖风劲, 等. 1971-2011年中国县级行政区域热带气旋基本气候特征[J]. 热带气象学报, 2014, 30(6):1089-1097. YIN Yizhou, LUO Yong, XIAO Fengjin, et al. Basic climatic characteristics of tropical cyclones in county-level administrations of China during 1971-2011[J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2014, 30(6):1089-1097. (in Chinese)
[10] 陈敏, 郑永光, 陶祖钰. 近50年(1949-1996)西北太平洋热带气旋气候特征的再分析[J]. 热带气象学报, 1999, 15(1):10-16. CHEN Min, ZHENG Yongguang, TAO Zuyu. An analysis on tropical ctclones’ climatic feature in the western North Pacific for 1949-1996[J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 1999, 15(1):10-16. (in Chinese)
[11] 王小玲, 任福民. 1957-2004年影响我国的强热带气旋频数和强度变化[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2007, 6(6):345-349. WANG Xiaoling, REN Fumin. Variations in frequency and intensity of strong tropical cyclones affecting China during 1957-2004[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2007, 6(6):345-349. (in Chinese)
[12] 赵珊珊, 高歌, 孙旭光, 等. 西北太平洋热带气旋频数和强度变化趋势初探[J]. 应用气象学报, 2009, 20(5):555-563. ZHAO Shanshan, GAO Ge, SUN Xuguang, et al. Climatological characteristics of tropical cyclones in the northwestern Pacific[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorogical Science, 2009, 20(5):555-563. (in Chinese)
[13] 李春晖, 刘春霞, 程正泉. 近50年南海热带气旋时空分布特征及其海洋影响因子[J]. 热带气象学报, 2007(4):341-347. LI Chunhui, LIU Chunxia, CHENG Zhengquan. The characteristics of temporal and spatial distribution of tropical cyclone frequencies over the South China Sea and its affecting oceanic factors in the past 50YR[J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2007(4):341-347. (in Chinese)
[14] Liu K S, Chan J C L. Interdecadal variability of western North Pacific tropical cyclone tracks[J]. J Climate, 2008, 21(17):4464-4476.
[15] Bell, G.D., and Coauthors. Climate assessment for 1999[J]. Bull.Amer. Meteor. Soc., 2000, 81, S1-S50.
[16] Gabriele, V., Gabriel A.V. Multiseason lead forecast of the north atlantic power dissipation Index(PDI) and accumulated cyclone energy(ACE)[J]. Journal of Climate, 2013(26):3631-3643.
[17] Gabriele, V., Gabriel A.V. North Atlantic power dissipation index(PDI) and accumulated cyclone energy(ACE):statistical modeling and sensitivity to sea surface temperature changes[J]. Journal of Climate, 2001(25):625-637.
[18] Hiroyuki, M., Tim, Li and Pang, C. Contributing factors to the recent high level of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) and power dissipation index (PDI) in the North Atlantic[J]. Journal of Climate, 2014(27):3023-3034.
[19] Richard C. Y. Li and Wen Zhou. Modulation of western north pacific tropical cyclone activity by the ISO[J]. Part I:genesis and intensity. Journal of Climate, 2013(26):2904-2918.
[20] 李雪, 任福民, 杨修群, 等. 南海和西北太平洋热带气旋活动的区域性差异分析[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2010, 15(4):504-510. LI Xue, REN Fumin, YANG Xiuqun, et al. A study of the regional differences of the tropical cyclone activities over the South China Sea and the western north Pacific[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2010, 15(4):504-510. (in Chinese)
[21] 郝赛, 毛江玉. 西北太平洋与南海热带气旋活动季节变化的差异及可能原因[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2015, 20(4):380-392. HAO Sai, MAO Jiangyu. Differences of the seasonal variations of tropical cyclone activities over the South China Sea and the western North Pacific and the possible causes[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2015, 20(4):380-392. (in Chinese)
[22] Ying, M., W. Zhang, H. Yu, X. Lu, J. Feng, Y. Fan, Y. Zhu, and D. Chen. 2014:An overview of the China Meteorological Administration tropical cyclone database[J]. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 2014(31):287-301. doi:10.1175/JTECH-D-2-00119.1.
[23] WU Shengan, KONG Haijiang, WU hui. Differences among different databases in the number of tropical cyclones forming over the western North Pacific[J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2010(4):341-347.
[24] YUAN Jinnan, LIAN Ailan, LIU Chunxia. Spatial and temporal variations of tropical cyclones at different intensity scales over the western north pacific from 1945 to 2005[J]. Acta Meteorological Sinica, 2008, 23(5):550-561.
[25] ZHENG Yongguang, CHEN Jiong, TAO Zuyu. Distribution characteristics of the intensity and extreme intensity of tropical cyclones influencing China[J]. Journal of Meteorological Research, 2014, 28(3):393-406.

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2016-01-14;改回日期:2017-11-03。
基金项目:海南省重点科技计划应用研究及产业化(ZDXM20130081);中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用(CMAGJ2015M45);中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201528);国家自然科学基金项目(41785005)
作者简介:吴胜安(1974-),男,高级工程师,博士,主要从事气候诊断分析与预测研究.E-mail:wsa01@sohu.com
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01