[1]李森,韩丽娟,毛留喜,等.小麦干热风灾害综合强度指数研究[J].自然灾害学报,2018,(02):174-183.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2018.0220]
 LI Sen,HAN Lijuan,MAO Liuxi,et al.A modified comprehensive intensity index of dry-hot wind hazard for wheat[J].,2018,(02):174-183.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2018.0220]
点击复制

小麦干热风灾害综合强度指数研究
分享到:

《自然灾害学报》[ISSN:/CN:23-1324/X]

卷:
期数:
2018年02期
页码:
174-183
栏目:
出版日期:
2018-04-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
A modified comprehensive intensity index of dry-hot wind hazard for wheat
作者:
李森1 韩丽娟1 毛留喜1 郭安红1 王纯枝1 姚艳丽2
1. 国家气象中心, 北京 100081;
2. 新疆农业气象台, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830002
Author(s):
LI Sen1 HAN Lijuan1 MAO Liuxi1 GUO Anhong1 WANG Chunzhi1 YAO Yanli2
1. National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081, China;
2. Xinjiang Agrometeorological Bureau, Urumqi 830002, China
关键词:
小麦干热风年型等级当量日数强度指数
Keywords:
wheatdry-hot winddamage classequivalent daysintensity index
分类号:
P49;X43
DOI:
10.13577/j.jnd.2018.0220
摘要:
干热风是我国北方麦区小麦生育后期经常出现的一种农业气象灾害,现有指标一般将干热风年型划分为无、轻、重3个等级,相同等级的年型之间难以进行相互比较;以往的研究通常只考虑高温低湿型,或将高温低湿和雨后青枯两种类型干热风分开分析,难以全面评价干热风的特点及其影响。本研究利用北方小麦主产区13省(区、市)178个站点1981—2015年小麦生育期内的逐日最高气温、14时相对湿度、14时风速、降水等资料,对干热风指数DHW进行了参数和类型修订,进而构建了涵盖高温低湿和雨后青枯两种干热风类型的干热风综合强度指数(CID);基于小麦因干热风造成的千粒重降低标准,提出了干热风当量日数(EDs)的概念,通过分析EDs与CID的关系,确定了北方小麦主产区各区域基于CID的干热风年型划分等级。干热风综合强度指数(CID)与干热风气象行业标准(QX/T82-2007)年型等级评价结果一致的比例,除新疆重区为84.4%外,其余各区域在90.9%至98.2%之间,表明CID具有较好的普遍适用性。基于CID对代表站点和典型干热风年的干热风时空特征分析表明:华北黄淮小麦主产区干热风强度呈减弱趋势,重区和次重区的变化趋势总体一致;而无论发生区域和发生强度,2001年均为1981—2015年中干热风最重的年份。干热风综合强度指数(CID)的建立实现了干热风强度的指数化综合评价,使具有相同年型等级的站点或年份之间干热风强度的时空对比分析成为可能,可作为现有干热风指标的拓展和补充,用于干热风灾害监测评估研究和服务。
Abstract:
Dry-hot wind is a common meteorological hazard for wheat in the northern China. The severity of the hazard is commonly classified as three classes:undamaged, slight damage, and severe damage. However, this classification can not benefit in depth comparsion analyses of the actual intensity of dry-hot wind over space and time for a specific class.Previous studies on dry-hot wind hazard were usually focused on the effect of high temperature with low humidity type, or high temperature with low humidity type but wilting heat after rain type separately. Thus, examination of the overall characteristics and impact was not feasible. In this study, using daily meteorological data (daily maximum temperature, relative humidity wind speed at 14:00, and daily precipitation) and wheat growth data from 178 stations in 13 provinces (regions, city) in the northern China from 1981 to 2015, we made parameter and type modification on DHW and developed a comprehensive intensity index of dry-hot wind (CID). Both effects of high temperature with low humidity and wilting heat after rain were integrated into CID. Based on the decrease in 1000-grain weight caused by dry-hot wind, another metric, equivalent days (EDs), was also established. We reclassified dry-hot wind damage based on CID for different wheat regions due to the linear-regression analysis between EDs and CID (P<0.001).Damage classes of dry-hot wind hazard determined by CID were in good agreement with those determined by the meteorological industry standard QX/T82-2007. Their ratios in the same hazard class varied from 90.9% to 98.2%, except for the severely affected region in Xinjiang with a value of 84.4%. The temporal and spatial patterns of CID showed that the dry-hot wind was the most severe in the year 2001 during 1981 to 2015 in terms of impacted areas and the intensity. The dry-hot wind intensity in both the severely and secondarily severely affected sub-regions decreased over the past 35 years in Huang-Huai-Hai region. It implied that the damage risk of dry-hot wind was reduced in this region. CID can be a complement to current indices in dry-hot wind damage assessment, as demonstrated in this study that it was useful for comparable quantitative analyses.

参考文献/References:

[1] 霍治国, 姜燕, 李世奎, 等. 小麦干热风灾害等级[S]. 北京:气象出版社, 2007. HUO Zhiguo, JIANG Yan, LI Shikui, et al. Disaster Grade of Dry-hot Wind for Wheat[S]. Beijing:Meteorological Press, 2007. (in Chinese)
[2] 北方十三省(市)小麦干热风科研协作组. 小麦干热风伤害机理的研究[J]. 作物学报, 1984, 10(2):105-112. Coordinated Research Group of Hot-Arid Wind for Wheat in North China. Study on the injurious mechanism of hot weather with dry wind (HDW) in wheat[J]. Acta Agronomica Sinica, 1984, 10(2):105-112. (in Chinese)
[3] 北方小麦干热风科研协作组. 小麦干热风[M]. 北京:气象出版社, 1988. Coordinated Research Group of Hot-Arid Wind for Wheat in North China. Hot-arid Wind for Wheat[M]. Beijing:Meteorological Press, 1988. (in Chinese)
[4] 国家统计局农村社会经济调查司. 中国农村统计年鉴[M]. 北京:中国统计出版社, 2001-2014. Department of rural surveys, National Bureau of Statistics. China Rural Statistical Yearbook[M]. Beijing:China Statistics Press, 2001-2014. (in Chinese)
[5] 北方小麦干热风科研协作组. 干热风对小麦灌浆速度的影响[J]. 气象, 1983, 9(5):22-24. Coordinated Research Group of Hot-Arid Wind for Wheat in North China. Study on the effects of dry-hot wind upon wheat grain filling speed[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 1983, 9(5):22-24. (in Chinese)
[6] 小麦干热风科研协作组. 北方小麦干热风气候区划[J]. 气象, 1981, 7(5):11-15. Coordinated Research Group of Hot-Arid Wind for Wheat. Climatic regionalization of dry-hot wind for wheat in North China[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 1981, 7(5):11-15. (in Chinese)
[7] 全国干热风协作组.我国北方小麦干热风区划的几个技术问题[J]. 陕西气象, 1980(7):5-9, 4. Coordinated Research Group of Hot-Arid Wind for Wheat in China. The technology problems of climatic regionalization of dry-hot wind for wheat in China[J]. Journal of Shaanxi Meteorology, 1980(7):5-9, 4. (in Chinese)
[8] 北方小麦干热风科研协作组. 小麦干热风气象指标的研究[J]. 中国农业科学, 1983, 16(4):68-75. Coordinated Research Group of Hot-Arid Wind for Wheat in North China. Study on the meteorological index of hot-arid wind for wheat[J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 1983, 16(4):68-75. (in Chinese)
[9] 北方小麦干热风科研协作组. 中国北方小麦干热风[J]. 中国农业气象, 1988, 9(1):57-59. Coordinated Research Group of Dry-hot Wind for Wheat in North China. Hot-arid wind of wheat in north China[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 1988, 9(1):57-59. (in Chinese)
[10] 陈怀亮, 邹春辉, 付祥建, 等. 河南省小麦干热风发生规律分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2001, 16(1):59-64. CHEN Huailiang, ZOU Chunhui, FU Xiangjian, et al. The EOF analysis on wheat dry-hot-wind in Henan province[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2001, 16(1):59-64. (in Chinese)
[11] 丁霞, 马晓群, 郝莹. 安徽省沿淮淮北干热风特征及其对冬小麦的影响[J]. 安徽农业科学, 2005, 33(6):977-978. DING Xia, MA Xiaoqun, HAO Ying. Character of the dry-heat wind in Huaibei region of anhui province and its effect on winter wheat growth[J]. Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences, 2005, 33(6):977-978. (in Chinese)
[12] 杨霏云, 朱玉洁, 刘伟昌. 华北冬麦区干热风发生规律及风险区划[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2013, 22(3):112-121. YANG Feiyun, ZHU Yujie, LIU Weichang. Occurrence rules and risk zoning of dry-hot wind in winter wheat producing areas of north China[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2013, 22(3):112-121. (in Chinese)
[13] 邬定荣, 刘建栋, 刘玲, 等. 近50年华北平原干热风时空分布特征[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2012, 21(5):167-172. WU Dingrong, LIU Jiandong, LIU Ling, et al. Spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of dry hot windy days in North China Plain in recent 50 years[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2012, 21(5):167-172. (in Chinese)
[14] 成林, 张志红, 常军. 近47年来河南省冬小麦干热风灾害的变化分析[J]. 中国农业气象[J]. 2011, 32(3):456-460, 465. CHENG Lin, ZHANG Zhihong, CHANG Jun. Analysis on the change of dry-hot wind hazard for winter wheat in last 47 years in Henan province[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2011, 32(3):456-460. (in Chinese)
[15] 屈振江, 郑小华, 李星敏. 陕西省冬小麦干热风分布特征及预测研究[J]. 中国农学通报, 2013, 29(18):50-56. QU Zhenjiang, ZHENG Xiaohua, LI Xingmin. The distribution characteristics and forecast of dry-hot-wind of winter wheat in Shaanxi province from 1981 to 2010[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2013, 29(18):50-56. (in Chinese)
[16] 钱锦霞, 郭建平. 黄淮海地区冬小麦干热风发生趋势探讨[J]. 麦类作物学报, 2012, 32(5):996-1000. QIAN Jinxia, GUO Jianping. Analysis on the occurring trend of dry hot wind in the Huanghuaihai winter wheat region[J]. Journal of Triticeae Crops, 2012, 32(5):996-1000. (in Chinese)
[17] 邓振镛, 张强, 倾继祖, 等. 气候暖干化对中国北方干热风的影响[J]. 冰川冻土, 2009, 31(4):664-671. DENG Zhenyong, ZHANG Qiang, QING Jizu, et al. Impact of climate warming and drying on dry-hot wind in the north of China[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2009, 31(4):664-671. (in Chinese)
[18] 朱建华, 刘淑云, 谷卫刚, 等. 山东省冬小麦干热风灾害预警模型研究[J]. 生物数学学报, 2012, 27(2):257-264. ZHU Jianhua, LIU Shuyun, GU Weigang, et al. Early warning model of dry and hot wind for winter wheat of Shandong province[J]. Journal of Biomathematics, 27(2):257-264. (in Chinese)
[19] 于培彦, 杨桂清. 小麦干热风中长期预报模型的研究[J]. 宁夏农学院学报, 1991, 12(4):23-31. YU Peiyan, YANG Guiqing. Models on a long-and medium-range forecasting of dry hot wind against wheat[J]. Journal of Ningxia Agricultural College, 1991, 12(4):23-31. (in Chinese)
[20] 赵俊芳, 赵艳霞, 郭建平, 等. 过去50年黄淮海地区冬小麦干热风发生的时空演变规律[J]. 中国农业科学, 2012, 45(14):2815-2825. ZHAO Junfang, ZHAO Yanxia, GUO Jianping, et al. Spatial-temporal changes of dry-hot wind for winter wheat in Huanghuaihai plain during the past 50 years[J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2012, 45(12):2815-2825. (in Chinese)
[21] 朱玉洁, 杨霏云, 刘伟昌, 等. 利用作物模型提取小麦干热风灾损方法探讨[J]. 气象与环境科学, 2013, 36(2):10-14. ZHU Yujie, YANG Feiyun, LIU Weichang, et al. Wheat yield loss extraction of dry hot wind disaster by using crop model[J]. Meteorological and Environmental Sciences, 2013, 36(2):10-14. (in Chinese)
[22] 刘静, 马力文, 张晓煜, 等. 春小麦干热风灾害监测指标与损失评估模型方法探讨——以宁夏引黄灌区为例[J]. 应用气象学报, 2004, 15(2):217-225. LIU Jing, MA Liwen, ZHANG Xiaoyu, et al. A method for monitoring dry-hot wind of spring wheat and estimating its yield losses:an example in irrigated areas of Ningxia[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2004, 15(2):217-225. (in Chinese)
[23] 赵俊芳, 赵艳霞, 郭建平, 等. 基于干热风危害指数的黄淮海地区冬小麦干热风灾损评估[J]. 生态学报, 2015, 35(16):5287-5293. ZHAO Junfang, ZHAO Yanxia, GUO Jianping, et al. Assessment of the yield loss of winter wheat caused by dry-hot wind in Huanghuaihai plain based on the hazard index of dry-hot wind[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica. 2015, 35(16):5287-5293. (in Chinese)
[24] 史印山, 尤凤春, 魏瑞江, 等. 河北省干热风对小麦千粒重影响分析[J]. 气象科技, 2007, 35(5):699-702. SHI Yinshan, YOU Fengchun, WEI Ruijiang, et al. Impact analysis of dry-hot wind on weight of thousand grain in Hebei province[J]. Meteorological Science and Technology, 2007, 35(5):699-702. (in Chinese)
[25] 陈继珍, 王咏青, 张杰. 河南省小麦干热风气候特征及其对小麦产量的影响[J]. 安徽农业科学, 2012, 40(12):7152-7154. CHEN Jizhen, WANG Yongqing, ZHANG Jie. Climatic features of dry-hot wind and its influence on the wheat yield in Henan province[J]. Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences, 2012, 40(12):7152-7154. (in Chinese)
[26] 杨晓光, 李茂松, 霍治国. 农业气象灾害及其减灾技术[M]. 北京:化学工业出版社, 2010. YANG Xiaoguang, LI Maosong, HUO Zhiguo. Agrometeorological Disasters and the Reduction Technologies[M]. Beijing:Chemical Industry Press, 2010. (in Chinese)
[27] 王春乙, 潘亚茹, 季贵树. 石家庄地区干热风年型指标分析及统计预测模型[J]. 气象学报, 1991, 49(1):104-107. WANG Chunyi, PAN Yaru, JI Guishu. Index analysis of dry hot wind year’s type and forecasting model in Shijiazhuang district[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 1991, 49(1):104-107. (in Chinese)
[28] 简慰民, 申明华. 新疆干热风区划[J]. 新疆农业科学, 1981, 18(3):21-24. JIAN Weimin, SHEN Minghua. Climatic regionalization of dry-hot wind in Xinjiang[J]. Xinjiang Agricultural Sciences, 1981, 18(3):21-24. (in Chinese)
[29] 成林, 张志红, 方文松. 干热风对冬小麦灌浆速率和千粒重的影响[J]. 麦类作物学报, 2014, 34(2):248-254. CHENG Lin, ZHANG Zhihong, FANG Wensong. Effects of dry-hot wind on grain filling speed and 1000-kernel weight of winter wheat[J]. Journal of Triticeae Crops, 2014, 34(2):248-254. (in Chinese)

相似文献/References:

[1]邬定荣,刘建栋,刘玲,等.近50年华北平原干热风时空分布特征[J].自然灾害学报,2012,(05):167.
 WU Dingrong,LIU Jiandong,LIU Ling,et al.Spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of dry hot windy days in North China Plain in recent 50 years[J].,2012,(02):167.
[2]杨霏云,朱玉洁,刘伟昌.华北冬麦区干热风发生规律及风险区划[J].自然灾害学报,2013,(03):112.
 YANG Feiyun,ZHU Yujie,LIU Weichang.Occurrence rules and risk zoning of dry-hot wind in winter wheat producing areas of north China[J].,2013,(02):112.
[3]陈怀亮,邓伟,张雪芬,等.河南小麦生产农业气象灾害风险分析及区划[J].自然灾害学报,2006,(01):135.
 CHEN Huai-liang,DENG Wei,ZHANG Xue-fen,et al.Analysis and zoning of agrometeorological disasters risk for wheat growing in Henan Province[J].,2006,(02):135.
[4]李香颜,张金平,陈敏.基于GIS的河南省冬小麦干热风风险评估及区划[J].自然灾害学报,2017,(03):063.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2017.0308]
 LI Xiangyan,ZHANG Jinping,CHEN Min.Risk assessment and zoning of winter wheat dry-hot wind in Henan Province based on GIS technology[J].,2017,(02):063.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2017.0308]

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2017-04-06;改回日期:2017-06-15。
基金项目:公益性行业(气象)科研专项(201506019);国家重点研发计划(2017YFD0300101)
作者简介:李森(1976-),男,高级工程师,博士,主要从事农业气象评价、灾害预警评估研究.E-mail:argentaly@163.com
通讯作者:韩丽娟(1978-),女,高级工程师,博士,主要从事农业气象与遥感应用研究.E-mail:11957523@qq.com
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01