[1]何研,方建,史培军.湖北省暴雨经济暴露时空变化及贡献率研究[J].自然灾害学报,2018,(03):110-118.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2018.0313]
 HE Yan,FANG Jian,SHI Peijun.Spatial-temporal patterns of economic exposure to rainstorm and influencing factors contribution in Hubei province[J].,2018,(03):110-118.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2018.0313]
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湖北省暴雨经济暴露时空变化及贡献率研究
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《自然灾害学报》[ISSN:/CN:23-1324/X]

卷:
期数:
2018年03期
页码:
110-118
栏目:
出版日期:
2018-06-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
Spatial-temporal patterns of economic exposure to rainstorm and influencing factors contribution in Hubei province
作者:
何研134 方建4 史培军123
1. 北京师范大学 地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室, 北京 100875;
2. 北京师范大学 民政部-教育部减灾与应急管理研究院, 北京 100875;
3. 北京师范大学 地理科学学部, 北京 100875;
4. 武汉大学 资源与环境科学学院, 湖北 武汉 430079
Author(s):
HE Yan134 FANG Jian4 SHI Peijun123
1. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;
2. Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs and Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;
3. Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;
4. School of Resource and Environmental Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China
关键词:
暴雨暴露经济贡献率湖北
Keywords:
rainstormexposureeconomycontribution rateHubei province
分类号:
X43
DOI:
10.13577/j.jnd.2018.0313
摘要:
采用1971—2015年湖北省78个气象站点的日降水数据,分别计算1971—1980、1981—1990、1991—2000、2001—2010、2011—2015年的平均暴雨雨强,结合1980、1990、2000、2010、2015年湖北省县级国内生产总值(GDP)数据和"暴雨雨强-经济损失率"模型,研究湖北省暴雨经济暴露的时空变化,并量化暴雨影响、经济影响、暴雨经济联合影响对暴雨经济暴露变化的贡献率。结果表明:(1)时间上,湖北省暴雨经济暴露在1980年后迅速增长,2015年达到330亿元,增长超过23倍,总体强度呈加重趋势。(2)空间上,暴雨经济暴露格局与暴雨分布、经济发展密切相关,整体东部高于西部,形成以武汉城市圈为首的沿长江暴雨经济高暴露带。(3)影响因子贡献率上,经济发展对暴雨经济暴露变化起主导作用且影响力逐渐增强,暴雨影响、暴雨经济联合影响对暴雨经济暴露变化起次要作用且影响力逐渐减弱。
Abstract:
Using the daily precipitation datasets from 78 meteorological stations in Hubei province during 1971-2015, the average rainstorm intensity in 1971-1980, 1981-1990, 1991-2000, 2001-2010, 2011-2015 were firstly calculated, respectively. Then combined with gross national products (GDP) for each county in 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010, 2015 and established model of "rainstorm intensity-economic loss rate", to investigate the spatial-temporal patterns of economic exposure to rainstorm. Moreover, the contribution rate of rainstorm, economic development and their coupling effects to economic exposure were analyzed. The results showed that: (1) Economic exposure to rainstorm of Hubei province had grown rapidly by 23 times from 1980 (1.4 billion yuan) to 2015 (33 billion yuan); the intensity of exposure had also been aggravated. (2) The spatial patterns of economic exposure were closely related to the change of rainstorm and economy, which is higher in the east,forming a high exposure belt along the Yangtze River headed by the Wuhan Metropolitan Area. (3) Economic development played a leading role in economic exposure, and its contribution had an increase trend; the rainstorm and coupling effects played a secondary role with a weakening impact.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2018-02-06;改回日期:2018-04-15。
基金项目:国家重点研发计划重点专项课题(2016YFA0602404)
作者简介:何研(1995-),女,博士研究生,主要从事气候变化与灾害风险研究.E-mail:heyan01@foxmail.com
通讯作者:史培军(1959-),男,教授,博士生导师,主要从事环境演变与自然灾害研究.E-mail:spj@bnu.edu.cn
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01