[1]林立,卓卫东,范立础,等.基于全寿命的工程建设项目风险模型研究[J].自然灾害学报,2018,(04):018-25.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2018.0403]
 LIN Li,ZHUO Weidong,FAN Lichu,et al.Research on risk model of engineering construction project based on life cycle[J].,2018,(04):018-25.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2018.0403]
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基于全寿命的工程建设项目风险模型研究
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《自然灾害学报》[ISSN:/CN:23-1324/X]

卷:
期数:
2018年04期
页码:
018-25
栏目:
出版日期:
2018-09-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
Research on risk model of engineering construction project based on life cycle
作者:
林立1 卓卫东2 范立础3 夏丹丹1
1. 厦门理工学院 土木工程与建筑学院, 福建 厦门 361024;
2. 福州大学 土木工程学院, 福建 福州 350001;
3. 同济大学土木工程防灾国家重点实验室, 上海 200092
Author(s):
LIN Li1 ZHUO Weidong2 FAN Lichu3 XIA Dandan1
1. School of Civil & Architecture Engineering, Xiamen University of Technology, Xiamen 361024, China;
2. School of Civil Engineering, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou 350001 China;
3. State Key Laboratory for Disaster Reduction in Civil Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China
关键词:
风险识别全寿命期损失评价风险评价工程鉴识
Keywords:
risk identificationlife cycleloss assessmentrisk assessmentengineering forensics
分类号:
TU9;X9
DOI:
10.13577/j.jnd.2018.0403
摘要:
本研究考虑工程项目全过程的风险相关性,将工程阶段划分为6阶段链式目标,构建基于全寿命周期的工程风险识别模型,包括两个核心指标:事故风险评价和事故损失评价。将工程风险视为前后阶段可传递的链式过程,构建工程全寿命风险评价模型。通过条件概率计算方法,建立全寿命期阶段工作能力的实现概率模型,以及项目健康指标的计算模型及其相关参数的选取方法。对比风险损失程度分级评价方法,提出工程事故鉴识的综合损失评价方法。考虑事故损失在事故链中的传递,建立事故直接损失的定量评价和间接损失的半定量评价方法,构建综合评估矩阵,并提出不同的损失组合下损失评价原则,设计了工程全寿命鉴识事故风险损失综合评价程序。
Abstract:
Considering the risk correlation of the whole process of the project, the engineering phase is divided into six-phase chained targets, and the risk identification model is built based on the full life cycle, including two key indexes:accident risk assessment and accident loss assessment. The project risk is regarded as a chain process that can be transferred from one stage to the next, building a project life cycle risk assessment model. Through the conditional probability calculation method, a probabilistic model for the ability to work at full-life stage is established, and a calculation model for the project health index and the selection of relevant parameters are established are proposed. Comparing the grading evaluation methods of risk loss degree, a comprehensive damage evaluation method for engineering accident identification was proposed. Considering the transmission of accident losses in the accident chain, a quantitative assessment of the direct loss of accidents and semi-quantitative evaluation methods of indirect losses are established, a comprehensive evaluation matrix is constructed, the principle of loss evaluation under different loss combinations is proposed, and the comprehensive risk assessment procedure entire life of the project to identify accidents is presented.

参考文献/References:

[1] 陶履彬, 李永盛. 工程风险分析理论与实践——上海崇明越江隧道工程风险分析[M]. 上海:同济大学出版社, 2006. TAO Lvbin, LI Yongsheng. Engineering Risk Analysis Theory and Practice——Risk Analysis of Shanghai Chongming Cross-river Tunnel Project[M]. Shanghai:Press of Tongji University, 2006. (in Chinese)
[2] 王卓甫. 工程项目风险管理[M]. 北京:中国水利水电出版社, 2003. WANG Zhuopu. Project Risk Management[M]. Beijing:Press of China Water Conservancy and Hydropower, 2003. (in Chinese)
[3] 阮欣. 桥梁工程风险评估体系及关键问题研究[D]. 同济大学, 2006. RUAN Xin. Risk Assessment System and Key Issues for Bridge Engineering[D]. Tongji University, 2006. (in Chinese)
[4] 林立, 范立础. 工程建设项目全寿命周期健康状态评价模型和风险贡献因子研究[J]. 福建农林大学学报(自然科学版), 2011(1):110-112. LIN Li, FAN Lichu. Health estimation model and risk contribution factors in engineering project life-cycle[J]. Journal of Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University (Natural Science Edition), 2011(1):110-112. (in Chinese)
[5] 范立础. 桥梁工程安全性与耐久性-展望设计理念进展[J]. 上海公路, 2004(1):1-8. FAN Lichu. Safety and durability of bridge engineering-progress of design concept in prospect[J]. Shanghai Highways, 2004(1):1-8. (in Chinese)
[6] 中华人民共和国交通部. 公路工程结构可靠度设计统一标准(GB1T50283-1999)[S]. 北京:人民交通出版社, 1999. People’s Republic of China Ministry of Transportation, Unified Standard for Reliability Design of Highway Engineering Structures(GB1T50283-1999)[S]. Beijing:Press of China Transportation, 1999. (in Chinese)
[7] LIN Li, FAN Lichu, ZHUO Weidong. Analysis and Estimation on Risk Factors in Engineering Project Life-cycle[C]//The 1st International Conference on Sustainable Construction & Risk Management, June 12-14, 2010, Chongqing, China.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2018-05-01;改回日期:2018-06-03。
基金项目:国家自然科学基金(51708472);福建省自然科学基金(2016J01270);中国博士后基金(2017M612550);厦门市科技计划项目(3502Z20173038);厦门市建设科技计划项目(xjk2017-1-15);建筑产业化闽台科技合作基地;厦门市风工程服务平台(3502Z20161016)
作者简介:林立(1979-),女,副教授,博士,主要从事工程防灾减灾研究.E-mail:fjlinlill@xmut.edu.cn
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01