[1]黄中发,黄浩智,蒋水华,等.堤防工程系统风险因子量化及风险评价[J].自然灾害学报,2018,(04):171-177.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2018.0423]
 HUANG Zhongfa,HUANG Haozhi,JIANG Shuihua,et al.Quantification of risk factors and risk assessment for levee engineering system[J].,2018,(04):171-177.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2018.0423]
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堤防工程系统风险因子量化及风险评价
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《自然灾害学报》[ISSN:/CN:23-1324/X]

卷:
期数:
2018年04期
页码:
171-177
栏目:
出版日期:
2018-09-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
Quantification of risk factors and risk assessment for levee engineering system
作者:
黄中发1 黄浩智2 蒋水华1 陶理志2 江先河3
1. 南昌大学 建筑工程学院, 江西 南昌 330031;
2. 江西省河道湖泊管理局, 江西 南昌 330009;
3. 江西水利职业学院, 江西 南昌 330013
Author(s):
HUANG Zhongfa1 HUANG Haozhi2 JIANG Shuihua1 TAO Lizhi2 JIANG Xianhe3
1. School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031, China;
2. Jiangxi Provincial Channel and Lake Administration, Nanchang 330009, China;
3. Jiangxi Water Resources Institute, Nanchang, 330013, China
关键词:
堤防工程破坏模式风险评估风险因子量化方法
Keywords:
levee engineeringfailure moderisk assessmentrisk factorquantification approach
分类号:
TU45;X9;X43
DOI:
10.13577/j.jnd.2018.0423
摘要:
本文有效考虑管理不当引起的堤防溃决风险的影响,识别了堤防工程系统的23个风险因子。为方便风险因子量化,将其划分为12个定量因子和11个定性因子,并分别基于无量纲处理法和专家评分法对其进行量化。在此基础上对每个风险因子进行赋权处理并计算堤防工程系统综合风险评价值。最后,以鄱阳湖区矶山联堤防实例验证了提出方法的有效性,研究成果可为制定堤防风险管理决策提供理论和技术支持。
Abstract:
This paper aims to identify 23 risk factors of levee engineering system with the consideration of the effects of levee risks arising from improper managements. To facilitate the quantification of risk factors, the system risk factors are divided into 11 quantitative risk factors and 12 qualitative risk factors. The dimensionless method and expert evaluation method are adopted to quantify the quantitative and qualitative risk factors, respectively. Thereafter, the weight is assigned to each risk factor of levee engineering system and the comprehensive risk assessment value is evaluated. Finally, the Jishanlian levee in Poyang lake region is taken as a practical case to verify the effectiveness of the proposed risk factors quantification and risk assessment approaches. The research outcomes can provide theoretical and technical references for formulating risk management decisions of levees.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2018-04-24;改回日期:2018-05-20。
基金项目:江西省水利厅科技项目(KT201534);江西省自然科学基金项目(20171BAB206058)
作者简介:黄中发(1993-),男,硕士研究生,主要从事水工结构可靠度与风险分析方面的研究.E-mail:1311436292@qq.com
通讯作者:蒋水华(1987-),男,副教授,博士,主要从事水工结构及岩土工程可靠度与风险分析方面的研究.E-mail:sjiangaa@ncu.edu.cn
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01