[1]周蕾,吴先华,高歌.基于MRIO模型的“一带一路”典型国家气象灾害间接经济损失分析——以2014年中国“威马逊”台风灾害为例[J].自然灾害学报,2018,(05):001-11.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2018.0501]
 ZHOU Lei,WU Xianhua,GAO Ge.Analysis of indirect economic loss of meteorological disasters among the Belt and Road typical countries based on the MRIO model: taking the China’s typhoon Rammasun in 2014 as an example[J].,2018,(05):001-11.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2018.0501]
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基于MRIO模型的“一带一路”典型国家气象灾害间接经济损失分析——以2014年中国“威马逊”台风灾害为例
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《自然灾害学报》[ISSN:/CN:23-1324/X]

卷:
期数:
2018年05期
页码:
001-11
栏目:
出版日期:
2018-10-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
Analysis of indirect economic loss of meteorological disasters among the Belt and Road typical countries based on the MRIO model: taking the China’s typhoon Rammasun in 2014 as an example
作者:
周蕾1 吴先华2 高歌3
1. 南京信息工程大学 应用气象学院, 江苏 南京 210044;
2. 上海海事大学 经济管理学院, 上海 201306;
3. 国家气候中心, 北京 100081
Author(s):
ZHOU Lei1 WU Xianhua2 GAO Ge3
1. School of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;
2. Shanghai Maritime University School of Economics & Management, Shanghai 201306, China;
3. National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China
关键词:
MRIO模型"一带一路""威马逊"台风间接损失供给端损失需求端损失
Keywords:
MRIO modelB&Rtyphoon Rammasunindirect losssupply side lossdemand side loss
分类号:
X4
DOI:
10.13577/j.jnd.2018.0501
摘要:
在经济全球化和区域经济一体化的大背景下,灾害对相关区域和产业带来的关联经济损失日益成为人们关注的焦点和难点。本文基于多区域投入产出模型(Multiregional Input-output Model,简称MRIO模型),以2014年中国"威马逊"台风灾害为例,计算灾害对"一带一路"典型国家带来的关联经济损失。结果显示:(1)2014年我国"威马逊"台风灾害直接损失为325亿元,整个经济系统的间接损失高达1 217亿元;(2)"威马逊"台风灾害对"一带一路"典型国家带来的间接损失为5.5亿元,其中俄罗斯、印度尼西亚等国家损失较为严重;(3)从供给端和需求端计算灾害的损失,"威马逊"台风灾害的高敏感行业主要包括:制造业、农林牧渔业、电力、燃气、蒸汽和空调的供应以及建筑业等。本文是跨区域多部门灾害关联损失研究的有益补充,结果可为"一带一路"国家间的防灾减灾决策及灾害风险的联动管理提供参考。
Abstract:
Under the background of economic globalization and regional economic integration, the economic loss caused by disasters to relate regions and industries is becoming the focus and difficulty of people’s attention that people are concerned about. This article uses the typhoon Rammasun in China in 2014 as an example to calculate the impact of disaster on the loss of multiple industries in the"Belt and Road"(B&R) typical countries. The results show that:(1)In 2014, the direct loss of typhoon Rammasun in China was 32.5 billion yuan, and the indirect loss of the entire economic system was as high as 121.7 billion yuan. (2)The indirect loss caused by the typhoon Rammasun to the "B&R" typical countries is 550 million yuan, of which the losses in Russia, Indonesia are more serious than other countries. (3)Calculate the loss of disasters from the supply side and the demand side find that the highly sensitive industries of the Typhoon Rammasun including manufacturing, supply of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning, construction industry. This paper is a useful supplement to the research on disaster associated losses to cross-regional and multi-sectoral, and the results can provide reference for disaster prevention and reduction and disaster risk management in the "B&R" countries.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2018-04-12;改回日期:2018-05-15。
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(91546117,71373131,41501555);国家社科基金重大招标项目(16ZDA047)
作者简介:周蕾(1990-),女,博士研究生,主要从事灾害风险评估研究.E-mail:402542591@qq.com
通讯作者:吴先华(1977-),教授,博士生导师,主要从事气象灾害管理、产业系统分析研究.E-mail:wxhua_77@126.com
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01