[1]郭安红,何亮,韩丽娟,等.早稻高温热害强度指数构建及气候危险性评价[J].自然灾害学报,2018,(05):096-106.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2018.0512]
 GUO Anhong,HE Liang,HAN Lijuan,et al.Construction of heat damage intensity index of early rice and its climate risk assessment[J].,2018,(05):096-106.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2018.0512]
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早稻高温热害强度指数构建及气候危险性评价
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《自然灾害学报》[ISSN:/CN:23-1324/X]

卷:
期数:
2018年05期
页码:
096-106
栏目:
出版日期:
2018-10-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
Construction of heat damage intensity index of early rice and its climate risk assessment
作者:
郭安红 何亮 韩丽娟 张蕾
国家气象中心, 北京 100081
Author(s):
GUO Anhong HE Liang HAN Lijuan ZHANG Lei
National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081, China
关键词:
早稻高温热害强度指数时空变化分析气候危险性
Keywords:
early riceheat damageintensity indextemporal and spatial changesclimatic risk
分类号:
P49;X43
DOI:
10.13577/j.jnd.2018.0512
摘要:
为了对旬、年等时间尺度早稻高温热害进行定量化对比分析,以及对江南华南早稻区高温热害气候危险性进行时空细化分析评估,本文基于早稻高温热害行业规范,通过匹配1981—2016年江南华南早稻高温敏感发育期与高温天气过程,形成高温热害过程数据库;在此基础上,考虑不同等级高温热害达标强度、有效天数以及可能影响权重,构建了早稻高温热害强度指数;此外,基于旬高温热害强度分级以及不同强度等级出现概率加权,构建了旬高温热害气候危险性指数并分析了江南华南早稻区6—7月逐旬高温热害气候危险性。1981—2016年江南和华南早稻高温热害强度的变化分析结果表明,6月下旬、7月上旬以及抽穗至灌浆期高温热害强度指数呈现增强趋势,而7月中旬江南大部地区高温热害强度指数呈现减弱的趋势。2003年和2013年两个典型高温热害年份相比,2003年高温热害范围较大,其中7月上旬高温热害范围扩大且强度突增;2013年高温热害范围和强度整体较2003年偏小,但高温热害出现较早,6月中旬湖南东部、江西大部即出现了高温热害,这与当时出现了较大范围的高温天气以及该地区早稻较早进入了抽穗期是共同关联的。江南华南早稻区6—7月逐旬高温热害的气候危险性分析结果表明,7月上中旬为江南、华南早稻高温热害危险性最高的两旬,并且江南早稻高温热害的气候危险性整体大于华南地区;7月上旬湖南中部的部分地区、江西中部和东北部、浙江中部和福建中部等地为高温热害高危险区;7月中旬江西中部高危险性区域明显收缩,但浙江中部高危险性区域扩大。本文所研建的高温热害强度指数可以为任意时段或旬、月和过程等特定时段高温热害评估提供定量化评价技术方法,江南华南逐旬高温热害气候危险性评估可为细化的早稻高温热害防御和风险规避提供理论依据。
Abstract:
In order to evaluate the heat damage of early rice more specific in some definite timescale such as 10-days or annual periods, and also to qualitative analysis the risk of heat damage in temporal and spatial scale, the database of heat damage processes of early rice from 1981 to 2016 was formed by matching the high temperature sensitive development period and high temperature weather process of early rice in south region of the Yangtze River and in South China according to the industry standard of heat damage of early rice. Furthermore, heat damage intensity index (Hd) was constructed considering the intensity of high temperature damage, the accumulative days and the possible weight. In addition, based on the classification of 10-days Hd and the probability weighting of different intensity classes, climatic risk of heat damage index (Hr) was constructed to analyze the 10-days climatic risk of heat damage of early rice from June to July in south region of the Yangtze River and in South China. The analysis on the changes of Hd indicated that it increases from 1981 to 2016 in late June, early July and in the whole heading to filling stage in south region of the Yangtze River and in South China, but decreases in middle July in south region of the Yangtze River. In Comparison between 2003 and 2013, the heat damage range of early rice in 2003 is larger, and among which the range and intensity enlarged rapidly in early July. While in 2013, the range and intensity of heat damage in early and middle July were both smaller than that in 2003, but appeared earlier in middle June in east region of Hunan province and most region of Jiangxi province, which due to the presence of both high temperatures weather and sensitive developmental periods. Also, the analysis on 10-days Hr of early rice from June to July indicated that it raises to the highest level in early and middle of July, and it is much higher in south region of the Yangtze River than that in South China. In early July, the highest risk area is located in the middle region of Hunan Province, middle and northeast region of Jiangxi Province, middle region of Zhejiang Province and Fujian Province. And in middle July, the range of the highest risk of heat damage shrinks in the middle region of Jiangxi Province, but enlarge in the middle region of Zhejiang Province. In result, heat damage intensity index (Hd) constructed in this paper provide a quantified method to evaluate the heat damage of early rice in temporal and spatial scale, and the evaluation of climatic risk of heat damage (Hr) provide a more detail theoretical basis for disaster prevention and mitigation of heat damage of early rice.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2018-06-22;改回日期:2018-08-10。
基金项目:中国气象局国内外作物产量预报专项;国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFD0300101)
作者简介:郭安红(1972-),女,正研级高级工程师,博士,主要从事农业气象防灾减灾研究.E-mail:guoah@cma.gov.cn
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01