[1]王琳,李倩瑜,唐立娜.热带气旋潜在影响力指数的改进及其应用——以14号热带气旋“莫兰蒂”为例[J].自然灾害学报,2018,(05):151-157.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2018.0517]
 WANG Lin,LI Qianyu,TANG Lina.Improvement of tropical cyclone potential influence index and its application: a study of No.14 tropical tyclone Meranti[J].,2018,(05):151-157.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2018.0517]
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热带气旋潜在影响力指数的改进及其应用——以14号热带气旋“莫兰蒂”为例
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《自然灾害学报》[ISSN:/CN:23-1324/X]

卷:
期数:
2018年05期
页码:
151-157
栏目:
出版日期:
2018-10-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
Improvement of tropical cyclone potential influence index and its application: a study of No.14 tropical tyclone Meranti
作者:
王琳12 李倩瑜1 唐立娜1
1. 中国科学院 城市环境研究所城市环境与健康重点实验室, 福建 厦门 361021;
2. 中国科学院大学, 北京 100049
Author(s):
WANG Lin12 LI Qianyu1 TANG Lina1
1. Key Lab of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China;
2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
关键词:
闽三角热带气旋莫兰蒂潜在影响力指数GIS
Keywords:
Golden Triangle of Southern Fujiantropical cycloneMerantiTCPIGIS
分类号:
P954;P444;X43
DOI:
10.13577/j.jnd.2018.0517
摘要:
热带气旋引起的灾害是全球发生频率最高,影响最严重的一种自然灾害。为了对未来进一步发生风险和灾害的可能性有所预估,需使用科学的方法对其影响范围和影响强度进行评估。本研究基于热带气旋潜在影响力指数TCPI计算公式,对热带气旋强度、风圈半径、风速以及影响时间等因素进行综合考虑,改进系数a、b,并以"莫兰蒂"为例,研究改进后的指数与过程极大风速的关系,最后对其主要受灾区闽三角城市群的不同研究区域TCPI值及对人口和经济系统受到的影响范围进行分析。研究结果表示:"莫兰蒂"行进过程中,其TCPI与过程极大风速等有较好的相关性,并达到了0.01的显著性水平;对闽三角城市群各行政区域进行分析,得出受到影响最大的是厦门市集美区。
Abstract:
The calamity caused by tropical cyclones is the most frequent and serious natural disaster in the world. In order to predict the possibility of further risk and disaster in the future, scientific methods should be used to assess the scope and intensity of its impact. Based on the calculation of tropical cyclone potential influence index (TCPI), this paper improves the coefficient a and b considering the intensity, wind speed, wind radii and duration of tropical cyclone. Taking tropical cyclone Meranti as example, this paper studies the relationship between the improved index and the maximum wind speed. In addition, this paper also analyses the TCPI of different research areas among the affected area in cities located at the Golden Triangle of Southern Fujian and the affected scope for both the population as well as the economic system. The results shows that during the process of Meranti, there was a good correlation between the TCPI and the maximum wind speed during the process, reaching a significant level of 0.01. According to the analysis of the districts of Golden Triangle of Southern Fujian, the most heavily affected area was Jimei district in Xiamen city.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2018-03-27;改回日期:2018-05-22。
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0502902);国家自然科学基金面上项目(41471137)
作者简介:王琳(1992-),女,博士研究生,主要从事生态风险研究.E-mail:wanglin@iue.ac.cn
通讯作者:唐立娜(1978-),女,研究员,博士,主要从事城市空间格局、过程与效应,城市生态环境规划与管理以及城市可持续发展研究.E-mail:lntang@iue.ac.cn
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01