[1]梁建文,高美娇,赵雅坤,等.市政埋地供水管道抗寒潮可靠度分析[J].自然灾害学报,2019,28(02):010-17.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2019.0202]
 LIANG Jianwen,GAO Meijiao,ZHAO Yakun,et al.Cold-wave resistance reliability analysis of municipal water supply pipes[J].,2019,28(02):010-17.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2019.0202]
点击复制

市政埋地供水管道抗寒潮可靠度分析
分享到:

《自然灾害学报》[ISSN:/CN:23-1324/X]

卷:
28
期数:
2019年02期
页码:
010-17
栏目:
出版日期:
2019-04-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
Cold-wave resistance reliability analysis of municipal water supply pipes
作者:
梁建文12 高美娇2 赵雅坤2 肖笛3
1. 天津大学水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室, 天津 300350;
2. 天津大学 建筑工程学院, 天津 300350;
3. 南开大学 管理科学与工程系, 天津 300071
Author(s):
LIANG Jianwen12 GAO Meijiao2 ZHAO Yakun2 XIAO Di3
1. State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300350, China;
2. School of Civil Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300350, China;
3. Department of Management Science and Engineering, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071, China
关键词:
寒潮气温可靠度供水管道改进一次二阶矩方法
Keywords:
cold wavetemperaturereliabilitywater supply pipesadvanced first order second moment
分类号:
TU990.3;X9;X43
DOI:
10.13577/j.jnd.2019.0202
摘要:
为研究市政埋地供水管道抗寒潮可靠度,建立管道在气温变化影响下的结构功能函数,运用改进一次二阶矩方法计算可靠度随气温变化的情况,并以常州市某钢质供水管道为例,对影响管道可靠度的参数进行敏感性分析,最后用蒙特卡洛法进行验证。研究表明,寒潮期气温不同,供水管道的可靠度也不同,开展市政埋地供水管道设计时,考虑寒潮的影响是十分必要的;当寒潮期气温达到零下情况下,抗寒潮可靠度分析应该考虑管道的冰冻应力。管道正常工作压力下影响管道可靠度因素的顺序为屈服强度、管径、工作压力、壁厚等。
Abstract:
In order to study the cold-wave resistance reliability of municipal buried water supply pipe during cole wave, a structural function of pipes under the influence of temperature change was established. Taking a water supply pipe in Changzhou as an example, the value of reliability with the temperature change was calculated based on the advanced first order second moment. In addition, the sensitivity analysis of parameters affecting pipes reliability was carried out. Finally, the Monte Carlo method was used to verify the result of this study. The research shows that, with the change of temperature during the cold wave, the reliability of the water supply pipeline is also different. It is necessary to consider the influence of the cold wave when designing the municipal buried water supply pipe. When the temperature reaches zero during the cold wave, the analysis of cold-wave resistance reliability should consider the frozen stress of the pipe. Under normal operating pressure, the order of parameters affecting pipe reliability is yield strength of materials, pipe diameter, operating pressure and wall thickness of pipes, respectively.

参考文献/References:

[1] 金勰.极寒气候对上海中心城区供水安全保障的影响及应对措施[J].水能经济,2017(6):227-227.JIN Xie. Influence of extreme cold climate on water supply security in Shanghai central urban area and its countermeasures[J]. Water Energy Economy, 2017(6):227-227.(in Chinese)
[2] 广东水协网[EB/OL].[2016-02-04].http://www.gdwsa.com.Guangdong Water Association Network[EB/OL].[2016-02-04]. http://www.gdwsa.com.(in Chinese)
[3] 闽南网[EB/OL].[2016-01-27].http://www.mnw.cn/.Minnan Network.[EB/OL].[2016-01-27].http://www.mnw.cn/.(in Chinese)
[4] 海峡都市报[EB/OL].[2016-01-27].http://www.fjsen.com/.Strait Metropolis Daily[EB/OL].[2016-01-27].http://www.fjsen.com/.(in Chinese)
[5] 舒青松,毛勇.寒冷天气条件下珠海市供水管网爆管分析及应对措施[J].给水排水,2010,36(5):110-113.SHU Qingsong, MAO Yong. Analysis on the pipe explosion of water supply network in Zhuhai City under cold weather and the countermeasures[J]. Water & Wastewater Engineering, 2010, 36(5):110-113.(in Chinese)
[6] 谢绍正,卢群展,杨舒灵,等.寒潮期间供水管网事故分析和防治建议[J].中国给水排水,2009,25(6):1-4.XIE Shaozheng, LU Qunzhan, YANG Shuling, et al. Analysis and prevention of water supply network accidents in cold wave[J]. China Water & Wastewater, 2009, 25(6):1-4.(in Chinese)
[7] Inanloo B, Tansel B, Shams K, et al. A decision aid GIS-based risk assessment and vulnerability analysis approach for transportation and pipeline networks[J]. Safety Science, 2016, 84:57-66.
[8] Yoshizaki K, Hagiwara N. Prioritization of repair/replacement of aged gray cast iron pipelines based on risk assement[J]. 2006.
[9] Chen Y L, Yang Y X, Zhuang L. Risk and control of long distance natural gas pipeline operation[J]. Chemical Engineering Design Communications, 2016.
[10] Nazif S, Karamouz M, Ormsbee L E. Algorithm for assessment of water distribution system’s readiness:planning for disasters[J]. Journal of Water Resources Planning & Management, 2009, 135(4):244-252.
[11] 吴小虎.西安城市供水管网系统运行安全评价方法初探[D].西安建筑科技大学硕士学位论文,2007.WU Xiaohu. Intiative Study on Safety Assessment of City Water Supply & Distribution Network[D]. Xi`an:Xi`an University of Architecture and Technology, 2007.(in Chinese)
[12] 侯欢欢.基于贝叶斯网络城市埋地燃气管线风险评价研究[D].首都经济贸易大学硕士学位论文,2015.HOU Huanhuan.Research on Risk Assessment of Buried Gas Pipeline Based on Bayesian Network[D]. Beijing:Capital University of Economics and Business, 2015.(in Chinese)
[13] 王晨婉.基于贝叶斯理论的供水管道风险评价研究[D].天津大学硕士学位论文,2010.WANG Chenwan.Water Supply Pipeline Risk Assessment Based on Bayesian Theory[D]. Tianjin:TianjinUniversity, 2010.(in Chinese)
[14] 周超,信昆仑,陶涛, 等.供水管网爆管风险评估及可视化研究[J].城镇供水,2015(1):68-70.ZHOU Chao, XIN Kunlun, TAO Tao, et al. Risk assessment and visualization of pipe bursting in water distribution networks[J]. City and Town Water Supply, 2015(1):68-70.(in Chinese)
[15] 徐良,彭勇波,李杰.城市供水管网抗震可靠性分析与设计优化[J].灾害学,2010,25(b10):227-231.XU Liang, PENG Yongbo, LI Jie. Optimal design and analysis of seismic reliability of urban water distribution network[J]. Journal of Catastrophology, 2010, 25(b10):227-231.(in Chinese)
[16] 卫书麟,李杰,周静海.沈阳市供水系统抗震功能可靠性分析[J].世界地震工程,2008,24(4):106-110.WEI Shulin, LI Jie, ZHOU Jinghai. A seismic reliability analysis of Shenyang City water supply system[J]. World Earthquake Engineering, 2008, 24(4):106-110.(in Chinese)
[17] 陆益挺,蒋建群,胡云进,等.城市供水管道抗震可靠度评估方法与应用[J].城市道桥与防洪,2012(6):150-154.LU Yiting, JIANG Jianqun, HU Yunjin, et al. Method and application of seismic reliability assessment for urban water supply pipelines[J]. Urban Roads Bridges & Flood Control, 2012(6):150-154.(in Chinese)
[18] 刘刚,安韶,王威.城市供水管道抗震可靠度智能计算理论及其应用[J].中国安全科学学报,2015,25(11):118-122.LIU Gang, AN Shao, WANG Wei. Urban water supply pipeline seismic reliability intelligent computing theory and its application[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2015, 25(11):118-122.(in Chinese)
[19] 陆益挺.城市供水管网抗震可靠度评估研究[D].浙江大学硕士学位论文,2012.LU Yiting. Research on Seismic Reliability Assessment of Urban Water Supply Network[D]. Zhejiang:Zhejiang University, 2012.(in Chinese)
[20] 梁建文,高美娇,巴振宁.寒潮期市政埋地供水管道应力分析[J].安全与环境学报, 2019, 19(2):436-443.LIANG Jianwen, GAO Meijiao, BA Zhenning. Stress analysis of municipal buried water pipeline during cold wave period[J].Journal of Safety and Environment, 2019, 19(2):436-443. (in Chinese)
[21] 中华人民共和国建设部.给水排水工程管道结构设计规范[M].中国建筑工业出版社,2003.The ministry of construction of the People’s Republic of China. Structural Design Code for Pipes of Water Supply and Waste Water Engineering[M]. China Architecture & Building Press, 2003.(in Chinese)
[22] 中国工程建设标准化协会.给水排水工程埋地钢管管道结构设计规程[M].中国建筑工业出版社,2002.China Association for Engineering Construction Standardization. Specification for Structural Design of Buried Steel Pipeline of Water Supply and Sewerage Engineering[M]. China Architecture & Building Press, 2002.(in Chinese)
[23] 沈之基.给水管线的应力分析、爆管原因及对策[J].给水排水,1996(4):40-43.SHEN Zhiji. Analysis of stress in water supply pipeline, causes of tube explosion and countermeasures[J]. Water & Wastewater Engineering, 1996(4):40-43.(in Chinese)
[24] 程五一,王贵和,吕建国.系统可靠性理论[M].中国建筑工业出版社,2010.CHENG Wuyi, WANG Guihe, LV Jianguo. System Reliability Theory[M]. China Architecture & Building Press, 2010.(in Chinese)
[25] 张明.结构可靠度分析:方法与程序[M].科学出版社,2009.ZHANG Ming.Structural Reliability Analysis:Methods and Procedures[M]. Science Press, 2009.(in Chinese)
[26] Ahammed M, Melchers R E. Probabilistic analysis of underground pipelines subject to combined stresses and corrosion[J]. Engineering Structures, 1997, 19(12):988-994.
[27] Ahammed M. Probabilistic estimation of remaining life of a pipeline in the presence of active corrosion defects[J]. International Journal of Pressure Vessels & Piping, 1998, 75(4):321-329.

相似文献/References:

[1]王正旺,赵桂香,张瑞庭,等.山西东南部地区近40年寒潮气候特征分析[J].自然灾害学报,2010,19(06):055.
 WANG Zheng-wang,ZHAO Gui-xiang,ZHANG Rui-ting,et al.Characteristic analysis of cold wave weather in southeast area of Shanxi Province during last 40 years[J].,2010,19(02):055.
[2]姚平,曹杰,张万诚.纵向岭谷区8月气温的年际变化及其影响因子[J].自然灾害学报,2007,16(03):049.
 YAO Ping,CAO Jie,ZHANG Wan-chen.Interannual change of air temperature in August in Longitudinal Range-Gorge Region and its influence factors[J].,2007,16(02):049.
[3]司鹏,李庆祥,轩春怡,等.城市化对北京气温变化的贡献分析[J].自然灾害学报,2009,18(04):138.
 SI Peng,LI Qing-xiang,XUAN Chun-yi,et al.Contribution of urbanization to change of air temperature in Beijing[J].,2009,18(02):138.
[4]万云霞,张万诚,肖子牛.近百年云南纵向岭谷区气温的时空变化特征[J].自然灾害学报,2009,18(05):183.
 WAN Yun-xia,ZHANG Wan-cheng,XIAO Zi-niu.Spatiotemporal variation characteristics of air temperature in Longitudinal Ridge-gorge Region of Yunnan in recent century[J].,2009,18(02):183.
[5]邓明枫,陈宁生,丁海涛,等.2007年西藏东南部群发性泥石流的水热条件及其形成机制[J].自然灾害学报,2013,22(04):128.
 DENG Mingfeng,CHEN Ningsheng,DING Haitao,et al.The hydrothermal condition and formation mechanism of the group-occurring debris flows in the southeast Tibet in 2007[J].,2013,22(02):128.
[6]于成龙,胡海清,刘丹.近43年来小兴安岭及周边地区的气候变化特征[J].自然灾害学报,2005,14(05):055.
 YU Cheng-long,HU Hai-qing,LIU Dan.Features of climatic change in Xiaoxing’an Mountains and its surroundings over the last 43 years[J].,2005,14(02):055.
[7]那济海,郝立生.哈尔滨等几个城市气候变化的对比分析[J].自然灾害学报,2006,15(04):048.
 NA Ji-hai,HAO Li-sheng.A comparative analysis of climate change for some cities including Harbin[J].,2006,15(02):048.
[8]史兴民,谢越法,杨尚英.关中地区近48年来气温时空变化特征[J].自然灾害学报,2014,23(06):135.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2014.0617]
 SHI Xingmin,XIE Yuefa,YANG Shangying.Characteristics of air temperature change in Guanzhong region in recent 48 years[J].,2014,23(02):135.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2014.0617]
[9]黄炜楠,李雪,董胜.基于小波分析的山东寒潮强弱变化特征研究[J].自然灾害学报,2017,26(03):056.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2017.0307]
 HUANG Weinan,LI Xue,DONG Sheng.Study on intensity change characteristics of cold wave in Shandong Province by wavelet analysis[J].,2017,26(02):056.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2017.0307]
[10]李晨昊,萨楚拉,王牧兰,等.1961—2016年内蒙古雪灾时空分布特征[J].自然灾害学报,2019,28(02):136.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2019.0215]
 LI Chenhao,SA Chula,WANG Mulan,et al.Spatial and temporal distribution of snow disaster in Inner Mongolia from 1961 to 2016[J].,2019,28(02):136.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2019.0215]

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2018-08-13;改回日期:2018-09-25。
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0802400)
作者简介:梁建文(1965-),男,教授,博士,从事城市市政管网安全风险分析技术研究.E-mail:liang@tju.edu.cn
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01