[1]刘小玲,丁勇,王佩,等.面向巨灾保险的营运期公路边坡多灾害风险评估[J].自然灾害学报,2019,28(02):074-81.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2019.0208]
 LIU Xiaoling,DING Yong,WANG Pei,et al.Catastrophe insurance oriented multi disaster risk assessment of highway slopes during operation period[J].,2019,28(02):074-81.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2019.0208]
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面向巨灾保险的营运期公路边坡多灾害风险评估
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《自然灾害学报》[ISSN:/CN:23-1324/X]

卷:
28
期数:
2019年02期
页码:
074-81
栏目:
出版日期:
2019-04-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
Catastrophe insurance oriented multi disaster risk assessment of highway slopes during operation period
作者:
刘小玲1 丁勇2 王佩2 万克为3 曹之彬3
1. 宁波大学 海运学院, 浙江 宁波 315211;
2. 宁波大学 建筑工程与环境学院, 浙江 宁波 315211;
3. 中国太平洋财产保险股份有限公司宁波分公司, 浙江 宁波 315001
Author(s):
LIU Xiaoling1 DING Yong2 WANG Pei2 WAN Kewei3 CAO Zhibin3
1. Faculty of Maritime and Transportation, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, China;
2. Faculty of Architectral, Civil Engineering and Environment, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, China;
3. China Pacific Property Insurance Co., Ltd. Ningbo Branch, Ningbo 315001, China
关键词:
公路边坡风险评估巨灾保险多灾害运营期
Keywords:
highway sloperisk assessmentcatastrophe insurancemulti-disasteroperation period
分类号:
U416.1+4;X9;X43
DOI:
10.13577/j.jnd.2019.0208
摘要:
为应对运营期公路边坡的巨灾风险,减少经济损失,提出了一种服务于巨灾保险的公路边坡风险评估方法。该方法建立了结合事故可能性和事故损失的营运期公路边坡灾害风险矩阵决策模型。其中的事故可能性评估采用加权层次分析法,指标体系包含致灾因子、孕灾环境和承灾载体3个因素,致灾因子涵盖保险所涉及的台风及强热带风暴、暴雨、龙卷风、洪水及水库溃坝等自然灾害。事故损失则按照保险赔额划分等级,同时提出利用结构物价值和交通量、居民数的线性组合计算方法以实现系统自动化。另外,在单灾害风险评估的基础上,提出基于概率理论的多灾害耦合计算方法。最后,通过宁波市国省道巨灾风险评估及软件平台实施以来的实践,对所提评估方法进行了验证,结果表明评估结果与实际相符。风险评估的相关结论为灾害发生前、发生时、发生后的公路状况巡检提供了理论依据,有利于消除风险隐患,提高保险收益,创造社会效益。
Abstract:
To deal with the catastrophe risk of the highway slope in the operation period and reduce economic loss, a risk assessment method of highway slope for catastrophe insurance was proposed. This method establishes a risk matrix decision-making model of highway slope disaster in operation period, which combines accident possibility and accident loss. The accident possibility was evaluated based on the weighted analytic hierarchy process. The index system contains three layers considering the hazard factors, disaster environment and disaster carrier, among which, the hazard factors cover typhoon and strong tropical storm, rainstorm, tornado, flood, reservoir dam break and other natural disasters related to insurance. Accident losses were classified by the insurance claim. At the same time, a linear combination calculation method of structure value, traffic volume and resident number was proposed to realize system automation. Based on single disaster risk assessment, a multi disaster coupling calculation method based on probability theory was put forward. Finally, the proposed assessment method was verified through the practice of Ningbo national and provincial highway catastrophe risk assessment and software platform implementation. It shows that the assessment results are consistent with the actual situation. The relevant conclusions of risk assessment provide a theoretical basis for the road inspection before, when and after the occurrence of the disaster and are beneficial to eliminate risk risks, improve insurance revenue and create social benefits.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2018-03-23;改回日期:2018-10-29。
基金项目:国家自然科学基金(51808301);浙江省自然科学基金(LY19E080009,LQ19E080006);宁波市交通运输科技项目(201604)
作者简介:刘小玲(1988-),女,讲师,博士,主要从事公路桥梁的养护与评估.E-mail:liuxiaolingseu@163.com
通讯作者:丁勇(1975-),男,教授,博士,主要从事防灾减灾工程及防护工程、结构力学、桥梁工程等方面的研究.E-mail:dingyong@nbu.edu.cn
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01