[1]刘甜,方建,马恒,等.全球陆地气候气象及水文灾害死亡人口时空格局及影响因素分析(1965-2016年)[J].自然灾害学报,2019,28(03):008-16.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2019.0302]
 LIU Tian,FANG Jian,MA Heng,et al.Spatiotemporal patterns and influencing factors of mortality of climatological- meteorological-hydrological disaster in the world (1965-2016)[J].,2019,28(03):008-16.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2019.0302]
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全球陆地气候气象及水文灾害死亡人口时空格局及影响因素分析(1965-2016年)
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《自然灾害学报》[ISSN:/CN:23-1324/X]

卷:
28
期数:
2019年03期
页码:
008-16
栏目:
出版日期:
2019-06-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
Spatiotemporal patterns and influencing factors of mortality of climatological- meteorological-hydrological disaster in the world (1965-2016)
作者:
刘甜12 方建2 马恒14 史培军13
1. 北京师范大学 地理科学学部, 北京 100875;
2. 武汉大学 资源与环境科学学院, 湖北 武汉 430079;
3. 北京师范大学 地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室, 北京 100875;
4. 兰州大学 资源环境学院, 甘肃 兰州 730000
Author(s):
LIU Tian12 FANG Jian2 MA Heng14 SHI Peijun13
1. Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;
2. School of Resource and Environmental Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China;
3. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;
4. College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
关键词:
气候气象水文灾害死亡人口时空格局影响因素全球
Keywords:
climatological-meteorological-hydrological hazardsdeathsspatiotemporal patternsinfluencing factorsglobal scale
分类号:
X43
DOI:
10.13577/j.jnd.2019.0302
摘要:
选取1965-2016年全球气候、气象、水文3类灾害灾情数据,对其灾次、灾害人口死亡率格局、致灾因子的区域差异与气候变化的关系进行了系统的分析,并探究了灾害人口死亡率的影响要素。结果表明:(1)时间上,3类灾害总灾次呈逐年增加趋势,平均每次灾害人口死亡率逐年下降;(2)空间上,人口死亡率较高的国家多为发展中国家,且发展中国家水文类灾害灾次占比以及死亡人口占比最大,发达国家主要以气象类灾害为主;(3)3类灾害发生灾次的区域差异及其变化与气候变化的区域差异有一定关系。全球气候变湿趋势带的洪水-滑坡-风暴总灾次的逐年增长速度比气候变干趋势带更快,气候波动增强区分别对应的3种灾害比气候波动减弱区增长速度更快;(4)3类灾害的人口死亡率与该地区的3类灾害灾次和经济社会发展水平有关,年均3类灾害灾次与区域GDP水平对人口死亡率的影响最为重要。
Abstract:
This paper analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns and influencing factors of the hazards and mortality, selecting the global climatological, meteorological, hydrological disaster data from 1965-2016. The paper explored the relationship between regional differences of hazards and climate change, further, the influencing factor of mortality were analyzed as well. The results showed that:(1) the total number of the three types of hazards showed an increasing tendency in time, while the mortality per hazard was decreasing year by year. (2) The frequency and deaths of hydrological hazard had the highest proportion in developing countries with high mortality, while the developed countries were predominantly affected by meteorological hazards. (3) The annual frequency of flood-landslide-storm in climate wetting trend zone has grown faster than that in climate drying trend zone; moreover, the hazards corresponding to the precipitation/temperature enhanced fluctuation zone has grown faster than that in weakened zone. (4) The impact of the three types of disasters on mortality was related to the climate fluctuation and the level of economic and social development. The annual frequency of hazards and GDP level were the most important factors in the mortality.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2018-08-31;改回日期:2018-12-13。
基金项目:国家重点研发计划重点专项课题(2016YFA0602404)
作者简介:刘甜(1996-),女,硕士研究生,主要从事气候变化与灾害风险研究.E-mail:Liutian1101@foxmail.com
通讯作者:史培军(1959-),男,教授,博士生导师,主要从事环境演变与自然灾害研究.E-mail:spj@bnu.edu.cn
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01