[1]邓健,张静,林志彬.基于回归分析及卡尔曼滤波的闽赣断裂带垂直形变预测[J].自然灾害学报,2019,28(03):150-157.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2019.0317]
 DENG Jian,ZHANG Jing,LIN Zhibin.Prediction of vertical deformation on Fujian-Jiangxi fault zone based on regression analysis and Kalman filter[J].,2019,28(03):150-157.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2019.0317]
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基于回归分析及卡尔曼滤波的闽赣断裂带垂直形变预测
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《自然灾害学报》[ISSN:/CN:23-1324/X]

卷:
28
期数:
2019年03期
页码:
150-157
栏目:
出版日期:
2019-06-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
Prediction of vertical deformation on Fujian-Jiangxi fault zone based on regression analysis and Kalman filter
作者:
邓健12 张静3 林志彬4
1. 厦门理工学院 计算机与信息工程学院, 福建 厦门 361024;
2. 数字福建自然灾害监测大数据研究所, 福建 厦门 361024;
3. 厦门理工学院 研究生学院, 福建 厦门 361024;
4. 厦门地震勘测研究中心, 福建 厦门 361021
Author(s):
DENG Jian12 ZHANG Jing3 LIN Zhibin4
1. School of Computer and Information Engineering, Xiamen University of Technology, Xiamen 361024, China;
2. Big Data Institute of Digital Natural Disaster Monitoring in Fujian, Xiamen 361024, China;
3. Graduate School, Xiamen University of Technology, Xiamen 361024, China;
4. Xiamen Seismic Survey Research Center, Xiamen 361021, China
关键词:
形变预测回归分析卡尔曼滤波断裂带多项式拟合
Keywords:
deformation predictionregression analysisKalman filterfault zonepolynomial fitting
分类号:
P315;X43
DOI:
10.13577/j.jnd.2019.0317
摘要:
断裂带的活动性与地震活动有着密切的关系,断裂带垂直形变监测对捕捉地震前兆异常情况、预测地震危险性均有着非常重要的作用。基于闽赣断裂带5年跨断层水准观测数据,首先,通过拟合残差、F检验置信度水平综合判断各监测场地的多项式拟合阶数,构建了拟合效果较优的多项式回归模型;其次,引入卡尔曼滤波理论,分析并确定滤波先验信息,建立了垂直形变的卡尔曼滤波模型;最后,基于建立的两种模型对闽赣断裂带垂直形变进行预测分析。结果表明:当测段高差前后两期出现较大波动时,多项式回归模型预测精度略高于卡尔曼滤波模型;反之,监测场地测段高差变化较为平缓时,采用卡尔曼滤波模型预测精度优于1mm,在实际应用中,可以综合应用两种模型进行垂直形变预测,以提高预测效果。
Abstract:
The activity of fault zone is closely related to earthquake activity, and also the prediction of vertical deformation of fault zone plays an important role in predicting earthquake precursor anomalies and earthquake hazards. According to the five years of cross-fault horizontal observation data of Fujian-Jiangxi fault zone, in this paper, firstly, the polynomial fitting order of each monitoring site was comprehensively determined by fitting residual error and F test confidence level, and the polynomial regression model with the best fitting effect was constructed. Secondly, the Kalman filtering theory was introduced, with analyzing and determining the prior information of filtering, we established Kalman filtering model of vertical deformation. Finally, the vertical deformation of the Fujian-Jiangxi fault zone was predicted and analyzed based on the above two models. The results showed that the prediction accuracy with polynomial regression model is slightly higher than that with Kalman filtering model when there is a large fluctuation in the observation value. On the contrary, when the height difference is relatively mild, the prediction accuracy with Kalman filtering model is better than 1mm. In practical application, two models can be used to predict vertical deformation comprehensively, so as to improve the prediction effect.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2018-08-09;改回日期:2019-01-21。
基金项目:福建省自然科学基金(2019J01852);厦门理工学院科研攀登计划项目(XPDKT18024)
作者简介:邓健(1981-),男,副教授,博士,主要从事基于全球导航卫星系统的定位技术研究与应用、变形监测.E-mail:dengjian163@126.com
通讯作者:张静(1984-),女,助理研究员,硕士,主要从事变形监测理论与方法研究.E-mail:2011136704@xmut.edu.cn
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01