[1]高盼星,王义民,赵明哲,等.考虑不同成洪暴雨类型的洪水频率计算[J].自然灾害学报,2019,28(03):166-174.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2019.0319]
 GAO Panxing,WANG Yimin,ZHAO Mingzhe,et al.Flood frequency analysis considering the rainstorm types[J].,2019,28(03):166-174.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2019.0319]
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考虑不同成洪暴雨类型的洪水频率计算
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《自然灾害学报》[ISSN:/CN:23-1324/X]

卷:
28
期数:
2019年03期
页码:
166-174
栏目:
出版日期:
2019-06-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
Flood frequency analysis considering the rainstorm types
作者:
高盼星 王义民 赵明哲 孟雪姣 郭爱军
西安理工大学 省部共建西北旱区生态水利国家重点实验室, 陕西 西安 710048
Author(s):
GAO Panxing WANG Yimin ZHAO Mingzhe MENG Xuejiao GUO Aijun
State Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an 710048, China
关键词:
洪水频率计算暴雨类型条件概率分布暴雨洪水规律全概率公式
Keywords:
flood frequency calculationrainstorm typesconditional probability distributionrule of the rainstorm and floodtotal probability formula
分类号:
P333.6;X43
DOI:
10.13577/j.jnd.2019.0319
摘要:
不同气象成因(气候要素)致使洪水过程区别显著,由此,本文以流域暴雨类型与洪水过程关系为切入点,细化成洪暴雨类型,研究探索一种将水文气象规律与统计学科相结合的洪水频率计算方法。以汉江上游流域石泉、安康的暴雨洪水为例,在年最大洪水序列的基础上根据成洪暴雨的类型划分洪水序列进行采样,通过全概率公式建立年最大值序列与各子序列之间的分布函数关系,从而建立条件概率模型进行计算。由WLS、ABS、RMSE评价指标结果可得出:考虑成洪暴雨类型的条件概率分布法的计算结果相比于传统洪水频率分析法更接近序列的真实分布。同时,通过分析汉江上游近年来暴雨洪水的演变规律,也印证了考虑成洪暴雨类型时所得计算结果更符合实际。
Abstract:
Different rainstorm types cause significant differences in flood process. Therefore, based on the characteristics of rainstorm and flood in the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River, this research developed a flood frequency analysis method by considering the difference of rainstorm types. Taking the Shiquan and Ankang reservoirs as an example, the annual maximum flood sequence is divided into two sub-sequences according to the rainstorm types. Then, the two sub-sequences are used to estimate the design flood values using the total probability formula. Moreover, the estimated design flood values are compared to that based on the traditional flood frequency analysis method. With the aid of the WLS、ABS and RMSE indicators, we found that the developed flood frequency analysis method considering the rainstorm types is more elegant than the traditional method. Through analyzing the characterization of rainstorms and floods in the upper Hanjiang River, it also confirms that the design flood values estimated using the developed method are more reasonable than the traditional one. This research can provide a reliable basis for flood prevention plan making, not only in the upper reach of Hanjiang River but in the other basins.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2018-05-03;改回日期:2018-07-05。
基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0400906);国家自然科学基金(51679189,51679187)
作者简介:高盼星(1994-),女,硕士研究生,主要从事水文水资源研究.E-mail:gaopanxing8@163.com
通讯作者:王义民(1972-),男,教授,博士,主要从事水文水资源研究.E-mail:wangyimin@xaut.edu.cn
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01