[1]何冠洁,李守义,夏可,等.基于AHP可变模糊集理论的溃坝环境影响评价[J].自然灾害学报,2019,28(03):187-194.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2019.0321]
 HE Guanjie,LI Shouyi,XIA Ke,et al.Environmental impact assessment of dam break based on AHP variable fuzzy set theory[J].,2019,28(03):187-194.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2019.0321]
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基于AHP可变模糊集理论的溃坝环境影响评价
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《自然灾害学报》[ISSN:/CN:23-1324/X]

卷:
28
期数:
2019年03期
页码:
187-194
栏目:
出版日期:
2019-06-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
Environmental impact assessment of dam break based on AHP variable fuzzy set theory
作者:
何冠洁 李守义 夏可 张岳 郭金君
西安理工大学 水利水电学院, 陕西 西安 710048
Author(s):
HE Guanjie LI Shouyi XIA Ke ZHANG Yue GUO Jinjun
Water Conservancy and Hydropower Institute, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an 710048, China
关键词:
大坝风险环境影响层次分析法可变模糊集隶属函数
Keywords:
dam riskenvironmental impactanalytic hierarchy processvariable fuzzy setmembership function
分类号:
TV641;TV698;X9
DOI:
10.13577/j.jnd.2019.0321
摘要:
水库溃坝的风险不仅取决于大坝自身风险概率,也取决于溃坝导致的后果。我国大坝数量众多,病险大坝所占比重大,一旦溃坝将给下游带来灾难性后果。溃坝后果研究主要包括生命损失、经济损失、社会影响和环境影响4个方面,相比下来,目前国内外对于溃坝环境影响方面的研究稍显不足。针对溃坝环境影响研究内容的复杂性和不确定性,以前人研究为基础,综合考量河道形态、生物多样性等影响因素,采用可变模糊集理论,构建溃坝环境影响评价指标体系和评价等级标准。结合层次分析法(AHP)确定指标权重,建立了溃坝环境影响评价的可变模糊集评价模型,并以沙河集水库大坝作为工程实例进行验证。结果表明:采用可变模糊集评价模型的评价结果准确合理,具有较好的实用性,为溃坝环境影响评价提供了一种新方法。
Abstract:
The risk of dam failure not only depends on the risk probability of the dam itself, but also on the consequences. There are a large number of dams in China and the proportion of dangerous dams is huge. Once the dam breaks down, it will have disastrous consequences for the downstream. The study of dam breach consequences mainly includes four aspects:health effect, property loss, social impact and environmental impact, in comparison, the domestic and international research on the dam-breaking environmental impacts are slightly insufficient up to now. In view of the complexity and ambiguity of the research content on the dam-breaking environmental impact, based on previous studies, comprehensive considerations were made on the factors such as river morphology and biodiversity, using a variable fuzzy set theory to construct a dam breach environmental impact assessment index system and evaluation grade standard. The index weights were determined in combination with the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to establish a variable fuzzy set evaluation model for dam breach environmental impact assessment, and the Shaheji Reservoir Dam was used as an engineering example to verify. The results show that the evaluation result of the variable fuzzy set evaluation model is accurate and reasonable, and it has good practicability. It provides a new scientific method for dam breach environmental impact assessment.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2018-07-25;改回日期:2018-12-03。
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(51579208)
作者简介:何冠洁(1993-),男,硕士研究生,主要从事大坝风险及溃坝后果研究.E-mail:heguanjie123@stu.xaut.edu.cn
通讯作者:李守义(1955-),男,教授,博士,主要从事水工结构数值模拟及梯级水库群风险研究.E-mail:lsy123@xaut.edu.cn
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01