[1]李沛,黄生志,黄强,等.变化环境下渭河流域农业干旱形成与发展过程的时空特征研究[J].自然灾害学报,2019,28(04):131-141.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2019.0414]
 LI Pei,HUANG Shengzhi,HUANG Qiang,et al.Spatiotemporal characteristics of the formation and development of agricultural drought in Weihe river basin under changing environment[J].,2019,28(04):131-141.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2019.0414]
点击复制

变化环境下渭河流域农业干旱形成与发展过程的时空特征研究
分享到:

《自然灾害学报》[ISSN:/CN:23-1324/X]

卷:
28
期数:
2019年04期
页码:
131-141
栏目:
出版日期:
2019-08-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
Spatiotemporal characteristics of the formation and development of agricultural drought in Weihe river basin under changing environment
作者:
李沛1 黄生志1 黄强1 王浩2 王璐1 韩芦1
1. 省部共建西北旱区生态水利国家重点实验室(西安理工大学), 陕西 西安 710048;
2. 中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室, 北京 100038
Author(s):
LI Pei1 HUANG Shengzhi1 HUANG Qiang1 WANG Hao2 WANG Lu1 HAN Lu1
1. State Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China(Xi’an University of Technology), Xi’an 710048, China;
2. State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
关键词:
农业干旱发展过程标准化降水指数交叉小波渭河流域
Keywords:
agricultural drought development processstandardized precipitation indexcross waveletthe Weihe River Basin
分类号:
P467;X43
DOI:
10.13577/j.jnd.2019.0414
摘要:
本研究采用3个月尺度的标准化降水指数(SPI3)表征农业干旱,对渭河流域的农业干旱发展过程包括干旱发生、结束及其转化期和持续时间的演变特征进行了研究。此外,通过交叉小波探究了太阳黑子和大气环流异常因子与SPI3指数之间的相关性。结果表明:(1)渭河流域农业干旱发生和结束的偏好季节均为夏季;(2)渭河流域干旱持续时间、发生和结束的转化期的趋势变化并不明显;渭河流域平均干旱持续时间约为3.6个月,明显长于渭河流域的干旱发生转化期和结束转化期;(3)太阳黑子对于渭河流域农业干旱发展过程的影响最为强烈,厄尔尼诺/南方涛动(ENSO)和北极涛动(AO)次之,太平洋10年涛动(PDO)最弱。研究结果有助于揭示农业干旱的形成机理,为建立可靠的农业干旱早期预警系统提供一定的科学依据。
Abstract:
In this paper, a 3-month standardized precipitation index (SPI3) was used as a representative index to identify agricultural drought. The evolution characteristics of agricultural drought in terms of drought onset, termination, and their transition periods as well as drought duration in Weihe River Basin were studied. In addition, the correlation between the anomalous factors of solar sunspots and atmospheric circulation and the SPI3 index was explored by cross-wavelet. The results showed that:(1) The preferred seasons of drought onset and recovery were summer in Weihe River Basin; The average drought duration in the whole basin was nearly 3.6 months, which was clearly longer than the average drought onset and termination transition periods. (2) The trend of drought in the Weihe River Basin during the drought period, the occurrence and the end of the transformation period are not obvious. (3) The sunspots have the strongest influence on the evolution of agricultural drought in Weihe River Basin, followed by ENSO and AO, while PDO is the weakest.

参考文献/References:

[1] 程亮,金菊良,郦建强,等. 干旱频率分析研究进展[J]. 水科学进展,2013,24(2):296-302. CHENG Liang,JIN Juliang,LI Jianqiang, et al. Advance in the study of drought frequency analysis[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2013, 24(2):296-302. (in Chinese)
[2] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2013:The Physical Science Basis[M]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 2014.
[3] Tallaksen, L.M., Van Lanen, H.A.J. Hydrological drought:processes and estimation methods for streamflow and groundwater. In:Development in Water Sciences[J]. Elsevier Science, 2004, Amsterdam, Netherlands, 2010, 46-48.
[4] Mishra, A.M., Singh, V.P. A review of drought concepts[J]. J. Hydrol., 2010, 391:202-216.
[5] Zhang, B.Q., Wu, P.T., Zhao, X.N., et al. Drought variation trends in different subregions of the Chinese Loess Plateau over the past four decades[J]. Agric. Water Manage., 2012, 115:167-177.
[6] Mohammad, R.K., Majid, V., Amin, A. Drought monitoring using a Soil Wetness Deficit Index (SWDI) derived from MODIS satellite data[J]. Agr. Water Manage. 2014, 132:37-45.
[7] 翟家齐, 蒋桂芹, 裴源生等. 基于标准水资源指数(SWRI)的流域水文干旱评估——以海河北系为例[J].水利学报,2015, 46(6):687-698. ZHAI Jiaqi, JIANG Guiqin, PEI Yuansheng, et al. Hydrological drought assessment in the river basin based on Standard Water Resources Index (SWRI):a case study on the Northern Haihe River[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2015, 46(6):687-698. (in Chinese)
[8] Chen, H., Sun, J. Anthropogenic warming has caused hot droughts more frequently in China[J].J. Hydrol., 2017, 544:306-318.
[9] Logan KE, Brunsell NA, Jones AR, et al. Assessing spatiotemporal variability of drought in the U.S. central plains[J]. Journal of Arid Environments, 2010, 74:247-255.
[10] Tsakiris G, Pangalou D, Vangelis H. Regional drought assessment based on the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI)[J]. Water Resources Management, 2007, 21, 821-833.
[11] 李俊霖, 延军平, 孙虎,等. 关中平原东、中、西部气候干旱化程度比较分析[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2005,19(1):131-134. LI Junlin, YAN Junping, SUN Hu, et al. An analysis on climatic changes in east, middle and west areas of Guanzhong Plain[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2005,19(1):131-134. (in Chinese)
[12] Mo, K.C. Drought onset and recovery over the United States[J].Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 2011, 116(D20).
[13] Schwalm C R, Anderegg W R L, Michalak A M, et al. Global patterns of drought recovery[J]. Nature, 2017, 548(7666):202-205.
[14] Steinemann, A.C., Cavalcanti, L.F.N.. Developing multiple indicators and triggers for drought plans[J]. Water Resour. Manage. 2006, 132:167-174.
[15] 洪兴骏,郭生练, 周研来. 标准化降水指数SPI分布函数的适用性研究[J]. 水资源研究, 2013, 02:33-41. HONG Xingjun, GUO Shenglian, ZHOU Yanlai. Applicability of standardized precipit-ation index with alternative distribution functions[J]. Journal of Water Resources Research, 2013, 02:33-41. (in Chinese)
[16] McKee, T.B., Doesken, N.J., Kleist, J., The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales[J]. Paper Presented at 8th Conference on Applied Climatology. American Meteorological Society, Anaheim, CA. 1993.
[17] 黄生志, 黄强, 王义民,等. 基于SPI的渭河流域干旱特征演变研究[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2015(1):15-22. HUANG Shengzhi, HUANG Qiang, WANG Yimin, et al. Evolution of drought characteristics in the Weihe River Basin based on standardized precipitation index[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2015(1):15-22. (in Chinese)
[18] 李斌, 李丽娟, 李海滨,等. 澜沧江流域干旱变化的时空特征[J]. 农业工程学报, 2011,27(5):87-92. LI Bin, LI Lijuan, LI Haibin, et al. Spatial and temporal variability of droughts in the Lancang River basin[J]. Tran-sactions of the CSAE, 2011, 27(5):87-92. (in Chinese)
[19] 雷江群, 黄强, 王义民,等. 基于可变模糊评价法的渭河流域综合干旱分区研究[J]. 水利学报, 2014, 45(5):574-584. LEI Jiangqun,HUANG Qiang,WANG Yimin, et al. Variable fuzzy evaluation on comprehensive divisions of drought in the Weihe River Basin[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2014, 45(5):574-584. (in Chinese)
[20] 张利利, 周俊菊, 张恒玮, 等. 基于SPI的石羊河流域气候干湿变化及干旱事件的时空格局特征研究[J]. 生态学报, 2017, 37(3):996-1007. ZHANG Lili, ZHOU Junju, ZHANG Hengwei, et al. Temporal and spatial patterns of climate drought-wet and drought event based on standard precipitation index in Shiyang River Basin[J]. Acta. Ecologlca. Sinica, 2017, 37(3):996-1007. (in Chinese)
[21] 李兆元, 杨文峰, 徐小红. 西北干旱气候成因综述[J]. 陕西气象, 1999(5):15-17. LI Zhaoyuan, YANG Wenfeng, XU Xiaohong. Review on the causes of arid climate in northwest China[J]. Journal of Shaanxi Meteorology, 1999(5):15-17. (in Chinese)
[22] 王春玲, 崔力, 杜丽娅, 等. 濮阳市初夏重旱的原因和对秋作物的影响及防御措施[J]. 农学学报, 2013, 3(9):22-25. WANG Chunling, CUI Li, DU Liya. et al. The cause of severe drought in early summer in Puyang city and its effect on autumn crops and its defense measures[J]. Journal of Agriculture, 2013, 3(9):22-25. (in Chinese)
[23] 张迎, 黄生志, 黄强, 等. 基于Copula函数的新型综合干旱指数构建与应用[J]. 水利学报, 2018, 49(6):703-714. ZHANG Ying, HUANG Shengzhi, HUANG Qiang, et al. Construction and application of new comprehensive drought index based on Copula function[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2018, 49(6):703-714. (in Chinese)
[24] 张洪波,俞奇骏,陈克宇,等. 基于小波变换的径流周期与ENSO事件响应关系研究[J]. 华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版), 2016, 37(4):59-66. ZHANG Hongbo, YU Qijun, CHEN Keyu, et al. Analysis on the responding relationship between runoff period and ENSO events based on cross-wavelet transform[J] Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power (Natural Science Edition), 2016, 37(4):59-66. (in Chinese)
[25] 孙卫国,程炳岩. 变换在区域气候分析中的应用[J]. 应用气象学报, 2008, 19(4):479-486. SUN Weiguo, CHENG Bingyan. Application of cross wavelet transform in regional climate analysis[J]. Journal of Applied MeteorologicalScience, 2008, 19(4):479-486. (in Chinese)
[26] 陈昱潼, 畅建霞, 黄生志,等. 基于PDSI的渭河流域干旱变化特征[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2014,23(5):29-37. CHEN Yutong,CHANG Jianxia,HUANG Shengzhi, et al. Variation characteristics of drought in Weihe River Basin based on Palmer drought severity index[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2014,23(5):29-37. (in Chinese)
[27] 景朝霞, 夏军, 匡洋,等. 基于CI指数的渭河流域干旱时空演变特征研究[J]. 人民黄河, 2017, 39(7):86-91. JING Zhaoxia, XIA Jun, KUANG Yang, et al. Spatial and temporal patterns of droughts in Weihe River Basin Based on CI drought index[J]. Yellow River, 2017, 39(7):86-91. (in Chinese)
[28] 吴迪, 裴源生, 赵勇, 等. 基于区域气候模式的流域农业干旱成因分析[J]. 水科学进展, 2012, 23(5):599-608. WU Di, PEI Yuansheng, ZHAO Yong, et al. Driving forces analysis and estimation of agriculture droughtin river basins using regional climate model[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2012, 23(5):599-608. (in Chinese)
[29] 黄荣辉,陈际龙,刘永. 我国东部夏季降水异常主模态的年代际变化及其与东亚水汽输送的关系[J]. 大气科学, 2011, 35(4):589-606. HUANG Ronghui, CHEN Jilong, LIU Yong. Interdecadal variation of the leading modes of summertime precipitation anomalies over Eastern China and its association with vapor transport over East Asia[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2011, 35(4):589-606. (in Chinese)
[30] 奚秀梅,刘海隆, 塔里木河干流径流量变化与太阳黑子活动的关系[J]. 地理科学进展, 2013, 32(6):880-886. XI Xiumei, LIU Hailong. Relationship between annual runoff of the mainstream of Tarim River and sunspots activity[J]. Progress in Geography, 2013, 32(6):880-886. (in Chinese)
[31] HUANG S,LI P,HUANG Q, et al., The propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought and its potential influence factors[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2017,547:184-195.
[32] Givati A, Rosenfeld D, The Arctic Oscillation, climate change and the effects on precipitation in Israel[J]. Atmospheric Research, 2013,132:114-124.
[33] Valdés-Pineda R, Cañón J, Valdés J B, Multi-decadal 40- to 60-year cycles of precipitation variability in Chile (South America) and their relationship to the AMO and PDO signals[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2017(556):1153-1170.
[34] 官满元, 2004年特大干旱成因分析[J]. 气象研究与应用, 2007, 28(1):60-63. GUAN Manyuan. Causes analysis of serious drought event in 2004[J]. Journal of Meteorological Research and Application, 2007, 28(1):60-63. (in Chinese)
[35] Y.C. Lan, E.S. Kang, Q.J. Ma, J.S, et al. Chen. Runoff of the upper Yellow River above Tangnag:characteristics, evolution and changing trends[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2001, 11(3):297-304.
[36] 陈文,兰晓青,王林,等. ENSO和北极涛动对东亚冬季气候异常的综合影响[J]. 科学通报, 2013, 58(8):634-641. CHEN Wen, LAN Xiaoqing, WANG Lin, et al. The combined effects of the ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation on the winter climate anomalies in East Asia[J]. Chin Sci Bull., 2013, 58(8):634-641. (in Chinese)
[37] 刘永强, 丁一汇. ENSO事件对我国季节降水和温度的影响. 大气科学, 1995, 19(2):200-208. LIU Yongqiang, DING Yihui. Reappraisal of the Influence of ENSO Events on Seasonal Precipitation and Temperature in China[J]. Scientia Atmospherica Sinica, 1995, 19(2):200-208. (in Chinese)
[38] Zhang Q, Zeng J, Zhang I Y. Characteristics of land surface thermal-hydrologic processes for different regions overNorth China during prevailing summer monsoon period[J]. Science China:Earth Sciences, 2012, 55(1):1-9.
[39] 冯利华. 中国登陆热带气旋与太平洋海表温度的关系[J]. 地理学报, 2003, 58(2):209-214. FENG Lihua. Relationship between tropical cyclones landing in China and sea surface temperature in the pacific[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2003, 58(2):209-214. (in Chinese)
[40] 周丹, 张勃, 安美玲,等. 黄河流域不同时间尺度干旱对ENSO事件的响应[J]. 中国沙漠, 2015, 35(3):753-762. ZHOU Dan, ZHANG Bo, AN Meiling, et al. Responses of drought with different time scales to the ENSO events in the Yellow River Basin[J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2015, 35(3):753-762. (in Chinese)
[41] Paul, R.J., Robert, M.C. A study of the southern oscillation and walker circulation phenomenon[J]. Mon. Weather. Rev, 1978, 106(10), 1433-1451.
[42] Reginald, E.N., Yong, Z. Walker circulation and tropical upper tropospheric watervapor[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres, 1996, 101(D1), 1961-1974.
[43] Vecchi, G.A., Soden, B.J. Global warming and the weakening of the tropical circulation[J]. Journal of Climate, 2007, 20(17):4316-4340.
[44] Philander S G H. El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomena[J]. Nature, 1983, 302(5906):295-301.
[45] Tobias, B., Dietmar, D., Thomas, M., Scott, B.P., 2014. The eastward shift of the WalkerCirculation in response to global warming and its relationship to ENSO variability[J]. Clim. Dyn. 43(9-10), 2747-2763.
[46] 奚秀梅,刘海隆. 塔里木河干流径流量变化与太阳黑子活动的关系[J]. 地理科学进展,2013, 32(6):880-886. XI Xiumei, LIU Hailong. Relationship between annual runoff of the mainstream ofTarim River and sunspots activity[J]. Progress in Geography, 2013, 32(6):880-886. (in Chinese)
[47] D.Y. Gong, S.W. Wang. Influence of Arctic Oscillation on winter climate over China[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2003, 13(2):208-216.
[48] 唐民,吕俊梅. 东亚夏季风降水年代际变异模态及其与太平洋年代际振荡的关系[J]. 气象, 2007, 33(10):88-95. TANG Min, LV Junmei. The Inter-decadal mode of the summer monsoon rainfall in East Asia and its association with Pacific decadal oscillation[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2007, 33(10):88-95. (in Chinese)
[49] 袁瑞强, 王亚楠, 王鹏, 等. 降水集中度的变化特征及影响因素分析——以山西为例[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2018(1):11-20. YUAN Ruiqiang, WANG Yanan, WANG Peng, et al. Changing characteristics and influencing factors of precipitation concentration-a case study of shanxi[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2018(1):11-20. (in Chinese)

相似文献/References:

[1]陈莹,陈兴伟.福建省近50年旱涝时空特征演变——基于标准化降水指数分析[J].自然灾害学报,2011,20(03):057.
 CHEN Ying,CHEN Xing-wei.Evolution of spatiotemporal characteristics of flood and drought in Fujian Province for recent 50 years:an SPI-based analysis[J].,2011,20(04):057.
[2]窦睿音,延军平.近52年青海省东部地区旱涝时空变化研究[J].自然灾害学报,2013,22(05):189.
 DOU Ruiyin,YAN Junping.Spatial-temporal variations of drought and flood intensities in east of Qinghai Province during last 52 years[J].,2013,22(04):189.
[3]王连喜,边超钧,李琪,等.陕西省干旱变化特征及其对玉米产量的影响[J].自然灾害学报,2014,23(06):193.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2014.0624]
 WANG Lianxi,BIAN Chaojun,LI Qi,et al.Characteristics of drought change in Shaanxi Province and their influencce on corn yield[J].,2014,23(04):193.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2014.0624]
[4]柳艺博,王怀清,居为民.干旱对江西省森林生产力的影响特征[J].自然灾害学报,2016,25(03):067.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2016.0308]
 LIU Yibo,WANG Huaiqing,JU Weimin.Characteristics of drought effects on forest productivity in Jiangxi Province[J].,2016,25(04):067.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2016.0308]

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2018-10-23;改回日期:2019-01-16。
基金项目:水利公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201501058);国家自然科学基金项目(91325201);陕西省水利科技计划项目(2016slkj-8)
作者简介:李沛(1992-),男,硕士研究生,主要从事水资源系统工程方面的研究.E-mail:1073279827@qq.com
通讯作者:黄生志(1988-),男,副教授,博士,主要从事水资源系统工程方面的研究.E-mail:huangshengzhi7788@126.com
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01