[1]贾大卫,吴子燕,王其昂.基于贝叶斯网络的路网地震可靠性评估[J].自然灾害学报,2019,28(04):151-158.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2019.0416]
 JIA Dawei,WU Ziyan,WANG Qiang.Road network seismic reliability assessment based on Bayesian network[J].,2019,28(04):151-158.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2019.0416]
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基于贝叶斯网络的路网地震可靠性评估
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《自然灾害学报》[ISSN:/CN:23-1324/X]

卷:
28
期数:
2019年04期
页码:
151-158
栏目:
出版日期:
2019-08-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
Road network seismic reliability assessment based on Bayesian network
作者:
贾大卫1 吴子燕1 王其昂2
1. 西北工业大学 力学与土木建筑学院, 陕西 西安 710129;
2. 中国矿业大学 力学与土木工程学院, 江苏 徐州 221116
Author(s):
JIA Dawei1 WU Ziyan1 WANG Qi’ang2
1. School of Mechanics, Civil Engineering and Architecture, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi’an 710129, China;
2. School of Mechanics and Civil Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116, China
关键词:
公路网络贝叶斯网络易损性曲线可靠性评估可靠性更新
Keywords:
road networkBayesian networkfragility curvereliability assessmentreliability updating
分类号:
U491;X43;X9
DOI:
10.13577/j.jnd.2019.0416
摘要:
由于贝叶斯网络具有直观、智能、易于建立的优点,本文将贝叶斯网络应用于公路网络系统的地震可靠性分析。通过对路网中公路,桥梁在地震作用下的损害机理的研究,建立了单元的易损性曲线,并据此分析了单元的地震可靠性。建立了公路网络图,以路网中的公路、桥梁为基本变量,将公路网络图转化为贝叶斯网络图,建立了贝叶斯网络的结构模型及相应的条件概率表,利用全概率公式及条件概率公式,研究了地震作用下利用贝叶斯网络进行整体公路网络的连通可靠度的计算方法。将贝叶斯网络的计算结果与传统蒙特卡洛方法进行对比,表明误差较小,计算速度较快,证明了本方法的有效性和高效性。因此当已知部分信息时,就可以利用贝叶斯网络进行实时推理,从而实现整体路网的可靠性更新,并进行了最优运输路径的选择。
Abstract:
As Bayesian network has the advantages of intuitive, intelligent and easy to establish, this paper applies Bayesian network to seismic reliability analysis of highway network system. Through the research on the damage mechanism of highways and bridges under the action of earthquakes, the fragility curve of the unit is established, and the seismic reliability of the unit is analyzed. A road network is established. The highway and the bridge are used as the basic variables. The road network is transformed into the Bayesian network. The structural model of the Bayesian network and the corresponding conditional probability table are established. Using the full probability formula and the conditional probability formula, the calculation method of the connectivity reliability of the whole road network using Bayesian network under seismic action is studied. Comparing the calculation results of Bayesian network with the traditional Monte Carlo method, Bayesian network shows the less error and faster calculation speed, which proves the effectiveness and efficiency of the method. Therefore, when part of the information is known, the Bayesian network can be used for real-time reasoning, thereby realizing the reliability update of the overall road network and selecting the optimal transportation path.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2018-09-18;改回日期:2019-03-19。
基金项目:国家自然科学基金(51708545);西北工业大学研究生创意创新种子基金项目(ZZ2019212)
作者简介:贾大卫(1995-),男,硕士研究生,从事地震易损性分析研究.E-mail:dwjnwpu@163.com
通讯作者:吴子燕(1962-),女,教授,博士生导师,从事复杂结构健康监测及可靠性评估研究.E-mail:zywu@nwpu.edu.cn
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01