[1]陆研,谢涛,徐辉,等.基于信息流理论的降雨指标与滑坡泥石流因果分析[J].自然灾害学报,2019,28(04):196-201.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2019.0421]
 LU Yan,XIE Tao,XU Hui,et al.Causal analysis between rainfall indicators and landslide/debris flow based on information flow[J].,2019,28(04):196-201.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2019.0421]
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基于信息流理论的降雨指标与滑坡泥石流因果分析
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《自然灾害学报》[ISSN:/CN:23-1324/X]

卷:
28
期数:
2019年04期
页码:
196-201
栏目:
出版日期:
2019-08-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
Causal analysis between rainfall indicators and landslide/debris flow based on information flow
作者:
陆研1 谢涛12 徐辉3 刘振波1
1. 南京信息工程大学 遥感与测绘工程学院, 江苏 南京 210044;
2. 青岛海洋科学与技术国家实验室区域海洋动力学与数值模拟功能实验室, 山东 青岛 266000;
3. 国家气象中心, 北京 100081
Author(s):
LU Yan1 XIE Tao12 XU Hui3 LIU Zhenbo1
1. School of Remote Sensing & Geomatics Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;
2. Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266000, China;
3. National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081, China
关键词:
滑坡泥石流降雨指标信息流因果关系
Keywords:
landslide and debris flowrainfall indicatorsinformation flowcausality
分类号:
X43;P624.22
DOI:
10.13577/j.jnd.2019.0421
摘要:
降雨是滑坡泥石流灾害形成与发生的主导因素,但对其间的因果关系却缺乏定量的分析与验证。本文基于重庆地区2004~2016年的滑坡泥石流灾害数据与降水资料,具体分析了灾害与降雨的相关关系;并利用Liang-Kleeman信息流方法分别计算相应降雨指标与滑坡泥石流的信息流,结果表明:重庆滑坡泥石流灾害发生频次与年均降雨量的相关系数分别为0.51、0.53,均达到α=0.1水平的显著性相关;年均降雨量、Pa指数、降雨日数、暴雨频次、暴雨量到滑坡泥石流均存在单向因果关系;暴雨量到滑坡泥石流的信息流最大,是诱发滑坡泥石流的最主要的因素。基于信息流理论的降水与滑坡泥石流灾害的因果分析,不仅为滑坡泥石流灾害降水预报模式提供理论支撑,也对提高滑坡泥石流灾害预报预警准确率以及开展防灾减灾工作具有重要意义。
Abstract:
Rainfall is the dominant factor in the formation of landslide and debris flow hazards, but the causal relationship of which lacks quantitative analysis and verification. Based on the data of hazards and rainfall in Chongqing from 2004 to 2016, the relationship between landslide/debris flow and rainfall are specifically analysed.The Liang-Kleeman information flow method is used to quantitatively analyze the causality between rainfall indicators and landslide/debris flow. The results demonstrate that the occurrence frequency of landslide/debris flow have significant correlation with average annual rainfall, of which the correlation coefficient was 0.51 and 0.53, respectively. There is an one-way causal relationship from rainfall indicators(average annual rainfall, Pa index, rainfall days, rainstorm frequency, rainstorm)to landslide and debris flow. The information flow from rainstorm to landslide/debris flow is maximum, which indicates that the rainstorm is the main factor inducing landslide/debris flow.The causal analysis between rainfall and landslide/debris flow based on information flow not only provides theoretical support for landslide/debrisflow’s prediction model of rainfall, but also has important significance for improving the prediction accuracy of landslide/debris flow hazards and carring out the campaign of disaster prevention and mitigation.

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相似文献/References:

[1]韩杰,陆桂华,李海涛.水系分维在滑坡泥石流灾害区划中的应用[J].自然灾害学报,2009,18(04):063.
 HAN Jie,LU Gui-hua,LI Hai-tao.Application of fractal analysis of water systemto landslide/debris flow disasters zoning[J].,2009,18(04):063.

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2018-12-19;改回日期:2019-04-01。
基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1506404);国家自然科学基金项目(41776181)
作者简介:陆研(1995-),女,硕士研究生,主要从事滑坡泥石流灾害遥感监测方面的研究.E-mail:suivre1127@163.com
通讯作者:谢涛(1973-),男,教授,博士,主要从事微波遥感、海洋遥感方面的研究.E-mail:xietao@nuist.edu.cn
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01