[1]王璐,黄生志,黄强,等.基于综合干旱指数的黄河流域干旱多变量概率特征研究[J].自然灾害学报,2019,28(06):070-80.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2019.0608]
 WANG Lu,HUANG Shengzhi,HUANG Qiang,et al.Drought multivariable probability characteristics based on a multivariate standardized drought index in the Yellow River basin[J].,2019,28(06):070-80.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2019.0608]
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基于综合干旱指数的黄河流域干旱多变量概率特征研究
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《自然灾害学报》[ISSN:/CN:23-1324/X]

卷:
28
期数:
2019年06期
页码:
070-80
栏目:
出版日期:
2019-12-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
Drought multivariable probability characteristics based on a multivariate standardized drought index in the Yellow River basin
作者:
王璐1 黄生志1 黄强1 方伟1 李凯玮2 张迎1
1. 西安理工大学省部共建西北旱区生态水利国家重点实验室, 陕西 西安 710048;
2. 中国电建集团北京勘测设计研究院有限公司, 北京 100024
Author(s):
WANG Lu1 HUANG Shengzhi1 HUANG Qiang1 FANG Wei1 LI Kaiwei2 ZHANG Ying1
1. State Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an 710048, China;
2. Powerchina Beijing Engineering Corporation Limited, Beijing 100024, China
关键词:
Copula函数综合干旱指数重现期动态变化交叉小波变换黄河流域
Keywords:
Copula functionmultivariate standardized drought indexdynamic changes in the return periodscross-wavelet transformthe Yellow River basin
分类号:
X43;TV125
DOI:
10.13577/j.jnd.2019.0608
摘要:
变化环境下,全面掌握干旱演变特征对流域水资源管理具有重要意义。基于黄河流域1952-2012年月降水和径流资料,采用Copula函数和综合干旱指数(MSDI)分析了干旱多属性概率特征及其动态变化,运用交叉小波变换,探究了太阳黑子、大气环流异常因子(AO、ENSO)和植被覆盖指数(NDVI)对黄河干旱的影响。结果表明:(1)MSDI综合了SPI和SRI的优势,能够系统全面地反映流域干旱情况;(2)流域上游和中游部分分区不仅容易受到干旱的侵扰,且干旱风险还在加剧;(3)太阳活动、AO、ENSO以及NDVI都对黄河流域干旱有影响,其中太阳活动不仅直接影响MSDI的变化,也通过影响AO和ENSO间接影响MSDI的变化。
Abstract:
A comprehensive understanding of the evolution characteristics of droughts is of great significance to the watershed water resources planning and management in the context of changing environment. Based on the monthly precipitation and runoff data ranging from 1952 to 2012 in the Yellow River basin, the multivariate standardized drought index (MSDI) was calculated via Copula function. Subsequently, the multivariable probability characteristics and dynamic changes of droughts were analyzed. Furthermore, the cross-wavelet transform was employed to investigate the effects of solar activity, atmospheric circulation anomaly factors (AO and ENSO) as well as vegetation cover change (NDVI) on the drought evolution of the Yellow River basin. Results showed that:(1) combining the advantage of SPI and SRI, the MSDI can more systematically and comprehensively reflect the drought condition; (2) the upper and middle reaches of the basin are characterized not only by their vulnerability to drought, but also by increased drought risk; (3) all influencing factors, including solar activity, AO, ENSO and NDVI, affect drought evolution in the Yellow River basin. Among them, solar activity not only directly influences MSDI change, but also indirectly influences MSDI change through affecting AO and ENSO.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2018-10-26;改回日期:2019-07-29。
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(51709221);陕西省水利科技计划项目(2017slkj-19)
作者简介:王璐(1995-),女,硕士研究生,主要从事水文学及水资源方面的研究.E-mail:wlbless@163.com
通讯作者:黄强(1958-),男,教授,博士,主要从事水资源系统工程方面的研究.E-mail:wresh@mail.xaut.edu.cn
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01