[1]贡力,路瑞琴,靳春玲,等.基于博弈-改进可拓理论的寒冷地区长距离明渠冬季运行安全评价[J].自然灾害学报,2019,28(06):081-92.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2019.0609]
 GONG Li,LU Ruiqin,JIN Chunling,et al.Winter operation safety evaluation of long distance water diversion channels in cold areas based on game-improved extension theory[J].,2019,28(06):081-92.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2019.0609]
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基于博弈-改进可拓理论的寒冷地区长距离明渠冬季运行安全评价
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《自然灾害学报》[ISSN:/CN:23-1324/X]

卷:
28
期数:
2019年06期
页码:
081-92
栏目:
出版日期:
2019-12-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
Winter operation safety evaluation of long distance water diversion channels in cold areas based on game-improved extension theory
作者:
贡力 路瑞琴 靳春玲 吴梦娟
兰州交通大学 土木工程学院, 甘肃 兰州 730070
Author(s):
GONG Li LU Ruiqin JIN Chunling WU Mengjuan
Civil Engineering of Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China
关键词:
熵权博弈论改进物元可拓模型明渠安全评价
Keywords:
entropy weightgame theoryimproved matter element extension modelopen channelsafety evaluation
分类号:
N941.5;X9
DOI:
10.13577/j.jnd.2019.0609
摘要:
为有效预防寒冷地区明渠输水过程中渠道冰害的发生,保障冬季灌区农业用水效益,以工程运行经验和前辈的研究成果为基础,指出寒冷地区冬季明渠在冰盖下输水运行可消除诸多问题并归纳总结影响其冬季安全运行的因素,基于WSR理论构建寒冷地区长距离输水明渠冬季运行安全评价指标体系,结合国家现行的规范、技术规程、相关专著等对评价指标进行分等级量化。采用G1法计算各指标的主观权重,利用改进熵权法计算各指标的客观权重,以博弈论思想为指导,运用MATLAB确定各指标的组合权重。针对寒冷地区长距离输水明渠冬季运行特点,结合非对称贴近度建立改进物元可拓模型的寒冷地区长距离输水明渠冬季运行安全评价模型。以引大入秦工程明渠为例,对总干渠、东一干渠、东二干渠明渠段的冬季运行安全状况进行评估,结果与实际相吻合。结果表明:(1)以寒冷地区工程冬季运行经验、前辈研究成果及规范为基础,构建的系统地寒冷地区冬季明渠安全运行的物理-事理-人理三大方面的影响指标体系,为安全评价的合理性奠定了基础;(2)以改进熵权-G1-博弈论主客观相结合的赋权方法计算各指标权重,既具有科学性又具有一定的解释性;(3)以传统物元可拓理论为基础,结合非对称贴进度建立事物多指标特征参数的评价模型,进一步明晰明渠所属安全等级的贴近度。该方法相较于传统可拓法更精确有效,具有一定的科学性和实用性,可为寒冷地区明渠冬季安全管理提供科学的参考。
Abstract:
In order to effectively solve and prevent the occurrence of channel ice damage during water delivery in the cold areas of northern China, and ensure benefit of agriculture water use in winter irrigation district, and based on the cumulated engineering experiences and research results, it is pointed out that the open channel in the cold area adopts the method of water delivery under the ice cover in winter, which can eliminate many problems and summarize the influencing factors affecting the safe operation of the open channel in winter. An evaluation index system is established, with the WSR theory, for the operation safety of long-distance open channels in winter in cold areas and the indexes are quantified by grades according to the current nation specifications, technical regulation, by grades according to the current nation specifications, technical regulation, relevant monographs, etc. The subjective and objective weights of each index are calculated by G1 method and improved entropy weight method, respectively. The combination weight of each index is determined using MATLAB under the guidance of the game theory. According to the characteristics of the long-distance open channel operation in winter in cold areas, combined with the asymmetric closeness theory, the winter operation safety evaluation model for the long-distance open channel in the cold areas with improved matter element extension model is established. Taking the open channel of the DATONG river to QingWangChuan as an example, the winter operation safety status of the main canal, the East 1 main canal and the East 2 main canal open channel section are evaluated. The evaluation results are consistent with the actual results. The results show that:(1) Based on the cumulated engineering experiences, research results and related norms of engineering in cold areas of China, the impact index system of the three major aspects of W-S-R for the safe operation of winter open channels in cold regions is established, which lays a foundation for the rationality of safety evaluation results; (2) The weights of each index are calculated by the weighting method combined subjective and objective of improved entropy weight-G1-game theory, which makes the results of weighting calculation both scientific and explanatory; (3) Based on the traditional matter-element extension theory, combined with the principle of asymmetric sticking schedule, the evaluation model of multi-index feature parameters is established, and the closeness of the safety level of the open channel and the adjacent level is further clarified. Compared with the traditional extension method, the improved method is more accurate and effective, and has certain scientific and practicality, and can provide a scientific reference for the winter safety management of open channels in cold areas.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2019-05-30;改回日期:2019-07-02。
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(51669010);甘肃省自然基金项目(17JR5RA105);甘肃省"十三五"教育科学规划课题(GSGHB0233)
作者简介:贡力(1977-),男,教授,主要从事水利工程安全与管理研究.E-mail:gongl@mail.lzjtu.cn
通讯作者:吴梦娟(1993-),女,硕士研究生,主要研究水利工程安全与管理.E-mail:1197355696@qq.com
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01