[1]杨星星,杨云川,邓思敏,等.广西月尺度旱涝急转时空演变特征[J].自然灾害学报,2019,28(06):192-203.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2019.0621]
 YANG Xingxing,YANG Yunchuan,DENG Simin,et al.The spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of monthly drought-flood abrupt alternation in Guangxi[J].,2019,28(06):192-203.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2019.0621]
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广西月尺度旱涝急转时空演变特征
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《自然灾害学报》[ISSN:/CN:23-1324/X]

卷:
28
期数:
2019年06期
页码:
192-203
栏目:
出版日期:
2019-12-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
The spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of monthly drought-flood abrupt alternation in Guangxi
作者:
杨星星1 杨云川123 邓思敏1 廖丽萍123 莫崇勋123 杨家祯1
1. 广西大学 土木建筑工程学院, 广西 南宁 530004;
2. 广西大学 工程防灾与结构安全教育部重点实验室, 广西 南宁 530004;
3. 广西防灾减灾与工程安全重点实验室, 广西 南宁 530004
Author(s):
YANG Xingxing1 YANG Yunchuan123 DENG Simin1 LIAO Liping123 MO Chongxun123 YANG Jiazhen1
1. College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004, China;
2. Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Structural Safety of Ministry of Education, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004, China;
3. Guangxi Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Engineering Safety, Nanning 530004, China
关键词:
广西旱涝急转时空演变诊断预警
Keywords:
Guangxidrought-flood abrupt alternationspatio-temporal evolutiondiagnosing and alarming
分类号:
P339;X43
DOI:
10.13577/j.jnd.2019.0621
摘要:
近年,我国南方旱涝并存、急转突变现象突出,因其灾害严重且难以预防,已成为当前亟待攻关的热点问题。本文基于标准化前期降雨指数(SAPI)计算广西1961~2017年逐月旱涝急转指数(SDFAI),在讨论其阈值和适用性基础上,分析了区域旱涝急转事件的时空演变特征。结果表明:①SDFAI在广西具有较准确的识别能力,其临界阈值为1.2(旱转涝)和-1.2(涝转旱),57年时段旱转涝(涝转旱)事件百分率为4.07%(2.5%);②广西旱转涝事件年内分配以4月最多(12.59%)、12月最少(5.24%),涝转旱事件则以6月最多(21.88%)、12月最少(1.34%);③广西旱转涝(涝转旱)事件的年际增(减)趋势均不显著,多重周期以2.93a(3.09a)为主,仅旱转涝事件在2009年发生显著突变;④广西旱转涝(涝转旱)事件的年频次空间均值为0.49次/a(0.3次/a),空间分布均呈现由桂西北向桂东南逐渐减小的总体变化特征。该成果可为广西旱涝急转现象及其灾害成因分析、过程识别、信号诊断及预报预警研究奠定基础。
Abstract:
Recent years, the phenomenon of drought-flood abrupt alternation become prominent in southern China, and the disaster causes enormous loss and is difficult to prevent, which have become hot issues and urgent need to be resolved. The paper mainly analyzed the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of drought-flood abrupt alternation by the Short-cycle Drought-Flood Abrupt Alternation Index (SDFAI) which is calculated based on the Standard Antecedent Precipitation Index (SAPI) in Guangxi during 1961-2017a, and the threshold and applicability of SDFAI are also discussed. The results show that:Firstly, the SDFAI have accurate identification ability in Guangxi by critical threshold values of 1.2 with 4.07% events in drought to flood and of -1.2 with 2.5% events in flood to drought during the past 57 years. Secondly, The annual monthly distribution of the SDFAI events is most in April with 12.59% and minimum in December with 5.24% of drought to flood events, and is most in June with 21.88% and minimum in December with 1.34% of flood to drought events. Thirdly, the annual trend of the SDFAI events is all not significant with increasing of drought to flood event and with decreasing of flood to drought event. There is multiple periodicity but mainly of 2.93a in drought to flood event and of 3.09a in flood to drought event. A significant mutation of drought to flood event appear in 2009a during the past 57 years. Fourthly, the mean annual frequency over the whole study area is 0.49 events/year in drought to flood and is 0.3 events/year in flood to drought, and the spatial patterns of the SDFAI events present decrease gradually from northwest to southeast of the Guangxi province overall. In conclusion, the results of this paper provide a basis for drought-flood abrupt alternation research in Guangxi refer to disaster cause analysis, process identification, information diagnosis and forecast warning.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2019-01-02;改回日期:2019-03-04。
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(51609041,41901132,51569003);广西自然科学基金项目(2018GXNSFAA138187);广西重点实验室系统性研究项目(2016ZDX01,201680X09)
作者简介:杨星星(1993-),男,硕士研究生,主要从事洪旱灾害风险研究.E-mail:YangStars1@163.com
通讯作者:杨云川(1982-),男,副教授,博士,主要从事农业与城市生态水文学研究.E-mail:yyc_sciences@163.com
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01