[1]徐凡献.一种滑坡堰塞坝稳定性的快速评估模型[J].自然灾害学报,2020,29(02):054-63.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2020.0206]
 XU Fanxian.A rapid evaluation model of the stability of landslide dam[J].,2020,29(02):054-63.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2020.0206]
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一种滑坡堰塞坝稳定性的快速评估模型
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《自然灾害学报》[ISSN:/CN:23-1324/X]

卷:
29
期数:
2020年02期
页码:
054-63
栏目:
出版日期:
2020-04-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
A rapid evaluation model of the stability of landslide dam
作者:
徐凡献
中铁隧道股份有限公司, 河南 郑州 450000
Author(s):
XU Fanxian
China Railway Tunnel Stock Co., Ltd., Zhengzhou 450000, China
关键词:
滑坡堰塞坝统计分析几何形态参数溃决时间稳定性评估模型
Keywords:
landslide damstatistic analysisgeometric parametersbreach timestability evaluation model
分类号:
P642.2;X43;X9
DOI:
10.13577/j.jnd.2020.0206
摘要:
通过搜集110个国内外滑坡堰塞湖的几何形态参数和溃决时间,运用相关性分析、偏相关性分析和正态分布检验,得到87组相关系数小于0.6的自变量组合。基于Fisher判别分析,通过特征值和交叉验证选择出分类能力较强的4组自变量组合。在此基础上,对这4组组合分别建立Fisher判别模型和逻辑回归模型,绘制ROC曲线,选择出最佳的稳定性评估模型。结果显示:影响堰塞坝稳定性的几何形态参数依次为堰塞坝坝高、体积、堰塞湖库容和湖水面积。采用唐家山堰塞坝、红石岩堰塞坝和木鱼镇堰塞坝3个实际案例,验证了评估模型的有效性。该研究可为滑坡堰塞坝应急抢险提供一定的实践指导。
Abstract:
According to the geometric parameters and breach time of the 110 domestic and abroad landslide dams, 87 combination groups of independent variables with correlation coefficient less than 0.6 were obtained by using correlation analysis, partial correlation analysis and normal distribution tests. Based on Fisher’s discriminant analysis, four combinations of the independent variables with strong classification ability was selected through eigenvalue and cross-validation. On this basis, the Fisher’s discriminant models and the logistic regression models are established for the four groups, and the ROC curve is drawn to select the optimal stability evaluation model. The results showed that the geometric parameters affecting the stability of landslide dam are dam height, dam volume, storage capacity and impounding water area of the barrier lake. Finally, three practical cases, Tangjiashan dam, Hongshiyan dam and Muyuzhen dam, were used to verify the validity of the proposed model. The study can provide a certain practical guidance for emergency rescue of landslide dams.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2019-05-31;改回日期:2019-07-11。
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1505404-2);国家自然科学基金项目(41672283,41402266);四川省科技计划项目(2019YFG0001)
作者简介:徐凡献(1979-),男,高级工程师,硕士,主要从事工程建设方面的研究工作.E-mail:exqqduck@126.com
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01