[1]王小杰,姜仁贵,解建仓,等.西安市汛期降水变化特征及驱动机制研究[J].自然灾害学报,2020,29(02):138-148.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2020.0214]
 WANG Xiaojie,JIANG Rengui,XIE Jiancang,et al.Study on the variation characteristics and driving mechanism of precipitation during flood season in Xi’an City[J].,2020,29(02):138-148.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2020.0214]
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西安市汛期降水变化特征及驱动机制研究
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《自然灾害学报》[ISSN:/CN:23-1324/X]

卷:
29
期数:
2020年02期
页码:
138-148
栏目:
出版日期:
2020-04-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
Study on the variation characteristics and driving mechanism of precipitation during flood season in Xi’an City
作者:
王小杰1 姜仁贵12 解建仓1 赵勇2
1. 西安理工大学 省部共建西北旱区生态水利国家重点实验室, 陕西 西安 710048;
2. 中国水利水电科学研究院 流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室, 北京 100038
Author(s):
WANG Xiaojie1 JIANG Rengui12 XIE Jiancang1 ZHAO Yong2
1. State Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an 710048, China;
2. State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
关键词:
城市内涝汛期降水变化特征驱动机制气候因子西安市
Keywords:
urban waterloggingprecipitation in flood seasonvariation characteristicsdriving mechanismclimatic factorsXi’an City
分类号:
P426.6;X43
DOI:
10.13577/j.jnd.2020.0214
摘要:
变化环境下城市内涝灾害事件频发,已严重威胁城市居民生命财产安全,汛期降水强度大、持续时间长、影响范围广,是城市内涝主要致灾因子,通过分析城市汛期降水变化特征并进一步揭示其驱动机制,可为城市防洪减灾与水资源管理提供参考。本文采用Mann-Kendall检验、累积距平和连续小波变化等方法分析西安市1951-2017年汛期降水变化特征,采用交叉小波和小波相干揭示太阳黑子、大气环流异常指数北极涛动(AO)、南方涛动指数(SOI)、厄尔尼诺(ENSO)、太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)、北大西洋振荡(NAO)对西安市汛期降水变化驱动机制。结果表明:西安市汛期降水量主要集中在中雨和大雨。汛期降水总量、小雨和暴雨降水量均呈减少趋势,日降水量、中雨和大雨降水量呈增加趋势。汛期降水总强度、日降水强度、月降水强度和不同等级降水的强度均呈增加趋势。汛期降水集中度Q指数呈增加趋势,降水日数减少,汛期降水有更为集中的趋势。汛期降水量存在1958和2002年两个突变点,并且有7-9年的显著周期。AO 和太阳黑子对汛期降水的影响最为显著,其次为SOI、NAO和ENSO,PDO的影响相对较弱。AO、SOI、PDO和NAO对汛期降水主要存在正向驱动,ENSO对汛期降水主要为负向驱动。1975年之前太阳黑子对汛期降水有正向驱动,1975年之后则为负向驱动。
Abstract:
The urban waterlogging has become more frequent under changing environment, which has seriously threatened in the lives and property safety of city residents. The great intensity, long duration, wide influences of precipitation in flood season is the main causing disaster factors of urban waterlogging. By analyzing the change characteristics of urban precipitation in flood season and further revealing its driving mechanism, which can provide reference for urban flood control and disaster reduction and water resources management. The Mann-Kendall test, cumulative anomaly and continuous wavelet transform were used to investigate the change characteristics of flood season precipitation from 1951-2017 in Xi’an city. The cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence were used to reveal the driving mechanism of sunspot, atmospheric circulation anomaly indexes such as Arctic Oscillation (AO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on changes in flood season precipitation. The results show: The flood season precipitation was mainly concentrated in moderate rain and heavy rain. The total precipitation, precipitation of light rain and hard rain in flood season showed decreasing trend, while the daily precipitation, precipitation of moderate rain and heavy rain in flood season experienced increasing trends. The total precipitation intensity, daily precipitation intensity, monthly precipitation intensity and different grades precipitation intensity in flood season experienced increasing trends. The precipitation concentration degree (Q index) in flood season showed increasing trend and precipitation days in flood season decreased, indicating that the flood season precipitation had the trend to be more concentrated. The flood season precipitation had abrupt change points in 1958 and 2002 years, and there were statistically significant cycles of 7-9 years. AO and sunspot had the most significant effect on the flood season precipitation, followed by SOI, NAO and ENSO, and PDO had the relatively weak effect. The AO, SOI, PDO and NAO mainly had positive driving force on the flood season precipitation and vice-versa for ENSO. The sunspot had positive driving force on the flood season precipitation before 1975 and vice-versa after 1975.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2019-04-23;改回日期:2019-08-25。
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0401409);国家自然科学基金项目(51509201,51679188,71774132);陕西省自然科学基础研究基金(2018JM5031);中国博士后科学基金资助项目(2016M590964)
作者简介:王小杰(1995-),女,硕士研究生,主要从事城市防洪减灾方面的研究.E-mail:1044095993@qq.com
通讯作者:姜仁贵(1985-),男,副教授,博士,主要从事城市防洪减灾方面的研究.E-mail:jrengui@163.com
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01