[1]聂明秋,黄生志,黄强,等.基于非参数法的气象-水文干旱风险评估及其动态演变探究[J].自然灾害学报,2020,29(02):149-160.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2020.0215]
 NIE Mingqiu,HUANG Shengzhi,HUANG Qiang,et al.Meteorological-hydrological drought risk assessment and dynamic evolution based on nonparametric method[J].,2020,29(02):149-160.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2020.0215]
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基于非参数法的气象-水文干旱风险评估及其动态演变探究
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《自然灾害学报》[ISSN:/CN:23-1324/X]

卷:
29
期数:
2020年02期
页码:
149-160
栏目:
出版日期:
2020-04-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
Meteorological-hydrological drought risk assessment and dynamic evolution based on nonparametric method
作者:
聂明秋1 黄生志1 黄强1 王璐1 张迎2 郭怿1
1. 西安理工大学 西北旱区生态水利国家重点实验室, 陕西 西安 710048;
2. 黄河勘测设计规划研究院有限公司, 河南 郑州 450003
Author(s):
NIE Mingqiu1 HUANG Shengzhi1 HUANG Qiang1 WANG Lu1 ZHANG Ying2 GUO Yi1
1. State Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an 710048, China;
2. Yellow River Engineering Consulting Co. Ltd., Zhengzhou 450003, China
关键词:
气象干旱水文干旱综合干旱指数非参数核密度估计干旱风险因子演变特征
Keywords:
meteorlogical droughthydrological droughtcomprehensive drought indexnon-parametric kernel density estimationdrought risk factordynamic evolution characteristics
分类号:
P339;X43
DOI:
10.13577/j.jnd.2020.0215
摘要:
参数统计法广泛应用于水文频率分析。然而,与非参数核密度估计相比,当样本出现"多峰"时,其可能会导致参数估计值的分位点出现较为明显的偏差。基于此,本文以渭河流域为研究对象,基于降水和径流信息,采用非参数核密度估计法构建了综合干旱指数(NKMSDI)。采用Mann-Kendall法和启发式分割法分析了渭河流域综合干旱的演变规律;结合干旱风险因子(脆弱性、暴露度、恢复力)探究了其干旱风险的动态演变特征。结果表明:(1)提出的NKMSDI可综合表征气象—水文干旱状况,与其他方法构建的综合指数相比,其对干旱的表征结果更为可靠;(2)渭河流域干旱呈现显著加剧趋势,且NKMSDI序列存在变异点(1994年);(3)流域干旱风险呈现显著增大趋势,其中脆弱性增加,暴露度增加,恢复力减小。
Abstract:
Parametric statistical methods are widely used in hydrological frequency analysis. While compared with non-parametric kernel density, it will overestimate or underestimate the quantile of the parameter estimation when the sample has "multiple peaks". Therefore, a nonparametric kernel multivariate standardized drought index (NKMSDI) that combines information about precipitation and streamflow was developed, and the Mann-Kendall trend test method and heuristic segmentation method were analyzed the drought evolution in the Wei River basin. Subsequently, three drought risk indicators (resilience, vulnerability and exposure) were adopted for dynamic evolution characteristics of drought risk. The results indicate that: (1) compared with the comprehensive index constructed by other methods, the NKMSDI proposed in this study is more reliable in characterizing drought due to its comprehensive characterization of meteorological drought and hydrological drought; (2) drought in the Wei River Basin has been more serious, and there was a change point(1994) in the NKMSDI series; (3) the risk of drought has increased significantly, with increased vulnerability, increased exposure and reduced resilience.

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 XIAO Mingzhong,ZHANG Qiang,CHEN Yongqin,et al.Hydrological drought frequency analysis of East River basin based on trivariate Copulas function[J].,2013,22(02):099.
[4]陈财,阮甜,罗纲,等.淮河蚌埠闸以上地区冬小麦干旱对气象干旱的响应[J].自然灾害学报,2019,28(05):113.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2019.0513]
 CHEN Cai,RUAN Tian,LUO Gang,et al.Response of winter wheat drought to meteorological drought above the Bengbu Sluice in the Huaihe River[J].,2019,28(02):113.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2019.0513]

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2019-10-21;改回日期:2020-01-11。
基金项目:中国博士后科学基金(2018M640155);陕西省教育厅重点实验室科研计划项目(17JS104);国家自然科学基金(51709221);中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室开放研究资金资助(IWHR-SKL-KF201803)
作者简介:聂明秋(1996-),女,硕士研究生,主要从事水文水资源研究工作.E-mail:1263894475@qq.com
通讯作者:黄生志(1988-),男,副教授,博士,主要从事主要从事干旱形成及传播机理、水文预报、变异诊断与重构等研究.E-mail:huangshengzhi7788@126.com
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01