[1]周路旭,刘建康,陈龙.藏东南交通干线(林芝段)冰湖溃决危险性分析与评价[J].自然灾害学报,2020,29(03):162-172.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2020.0318]
 ZHOU Luxu,LIU Jiankang,CHEN Long.Risk analysis and evaluation of glacier lake outburst in traffic route of southeast Tibet(Linzhi)[J].,2020,29(03):162-172.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2020.0318]
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藏东南交通干线(林芝段)冰湖溃决危险性分析与评价
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《自然灾害学报》[ISSN:/CN:23-1324/X]

卷:
29
期数:
2020年03期
页码:
162-172
栏目:
出版日期:
2020-06-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
Risk analysis and evaluation of glacier lake outburst in traffic route of southeast Tibet(Linzhi)
作者:
周路旭12 刘建康13 陈龙13
1. 中国地质科学院探矿工艺研究所, 四川 成都 611734;
2. 中国地质大学(北京), 北京 100083;
3. 中国地质调查局地质灾害防治技术中心, 四川 成都 611734
Author(s):
ZHOU Luxu12 LIU Jiankang13 CHEN Long13
1. Institute of Exploration Technology, CAGS, Chengdu 611734, China;
2. China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China;
3. Technical Center for Geological Hazard Prevention and Control, CGS, Chengdu 611734, China
关键词:
帕隆藏布冰湖溃决冰碛湖危险性评价藏东南
Keywords:
Palongzangbuglacial lake outburstmoraine dammed lakerisk assessmentsoutheast Tibet
分类号:
P931.4X9
DOI:
10.13577/j.jnd.2020.0318
摘要:
藏东南地区河流纵横,湖泊密集,在高山极高山地区分布有大量冰湖,随着全球气候变暖的影响,冰湖溃决灾害已严重威胁人民生命财产安全以及川藏线的通行安全,因此,为冰湖的危险程度做出准确有效的评价至关重要,但是针对藏东南林芝段具体情况,传统的冰湖危险程度评价方法不够准确高效,本文在传统的评价方法基础之上应用Fisher判别分析方法,对研究区472个冰湖进行了判识,并作出危险性评价与分析,其中,评定出处于高度危险的冰湖有6个,危险程度为中的冰湖有10个,456冰湖危险程度均为低,分析GL09所在地区及其下游为高度危险区,多依隆巴、曲都隆巴、那琼隆巴、曲格隆巴及其下游为较危险区,其余冰湖危险程度为中的地区为相对安全地区,危险程度低的地区为安全地区,为全面评价与分析藏东南交通干线(林芝段)冰湖危险性,川藏铁路建设选址等方面提供了重要的参考价值。
Abstract:
In the southeastern part of Tibet, rivers are densely landscaped and lakes are numerous. There are a large number of glacier lakes in the alpine and high mountain areas. With the impact of global warming, the glacial lake outbursts disaster pose a fatal threat to the security of people’s lives and property,and the traffic safety of the Sichuan-Tibet line. It’s crucial for us to judge the degree of hazard about the glacial lake accurately, efficiently and comprehensively. Obviously,according to the specific situation of the eastern Tibet,the traditional method of assessing the degree of risk is not accurate enough.On the basis of traditional evaluation methods, this paper used Fisher discriminant analysis method to identify 472 ice lakes in the study area, and made risk assessment and analysis.Among them, 6 glacial lakes were assessed to be high risk area, 10 glacial lakes with moderate risk, and the dangerous degree of 456 glacial lakes was lower. The analysis showed that the area of GL09 and its downstream areas were at high risk, Duoyilongba, Qudulongba, Naqionglongba and its downstream areas were relatively dangerous areas, while the other areas with moderate risk degree were relatively safe areas. This paper covers a lot of content,such as selects six dangerous characteristic indexes of the glacial lake, and calculates the dangerous coefficient of the glacier lake’s outburst which provides an important reference value for comprehensive evaluation and analysis of the danger of glacier lakes on the southeastern Tibetan transportation trunk line (Linzhi Section) and site selection of Sichuan-Tibet railway construction.

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相似文献/References:

[1]乐茂华,唐川,张丹丹,等.基于逻辑回归法的西藏地区冰湖溃决危险性预测模型[J].自然灾害学报,2014,23(05):177.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2014.0522]
 LE Maohua,TANG Chuan,ZHANG Dandan,et al.Logistic regression model-based approach for predicting the hazard of glacial lake outburst in Tibet[J].,2014,23(03):177.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2014.0522]

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2019-02-19;改回日期:2019-10-21。
基金项目:中国地质调查局项目(DD20190644,20190505,DD20160279);第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究(2019QZKK0902);国家自然科学基金项目(41402315)
作者简介:周路旭(1994-),男,硕士研究生,主要从事地质灾害形成机制与防治技术方法研究.E-mail:zhoulx001@outlook.com
通讯作者:刘建康(1985-),男,高级工程师,博士,主要从事地质灾害形成机理与
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01